Identifying the Onslaught Battlefield
Gerald Linn

“Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose.” – Sun Tzu

A limited environment in magic is defined by it’s cards, the creativity of the players, and the willingness to use the tactics presented in the sealed deck.  And so any success in limited magic is dependant on knowing the weaknesses and strengths of your opponent, their deck, and the environment (The Battlefield).  However, nowhere else in Magic can victory be so decided by understanding the environment as in sealed.

Today we will be examining the battlefield that is “Onslaught”.

Onslaught can be broken down into Six parts, Creatures, Creature Enchantments, Targeted removal, Instant Combat Effects, Sweepers, and Counters.  Thorough examination of each of these parts leads to determining what the Onslaught environment will look like and in each section we will recommend ideal cards for that group.

Part 1:The Creatures

“He who knows these things, and in fighting puts his knowledge into practice, will win his battles. He who knows them not, nor practices them, will surely be defeated.” – Sun Tzu

First we will examine the attributes of the creatures in Onslaught by breaking down the number of creatures in each casting cost.  Then, we will examine their respective power/toughness ratios.  Finally, we will examine the number of creatures with evasion

Casting Cost (Rares excluded)

Color	White	Black	Red	Green	Blue	Percentage of the Total number of Creatures
1cc	4	3	3	4	1	12%
2cc	5	5	4	7	4	20%
3cc	3	7	5	2	7	19%
4cc	7	4	3	5	4	18%
5cc	3	4	7	3	4	17%
6cc	3	2	0	2	2	7%
7cc	1	0	2	2	2	6%
8cc	0	0	0	1	0	1%

Power\Toughness

Power	Number of Creatures	Percentage of Total Creatures	Toughness	Number of Creatures	Percentage of Total Creatures
1	49 (4 rare  creatures have this power)	31%	1	47 (5 rare  creatures have this toughness)	31%
2	40 (6 rare  creatures have this power)	25%	2	35 (5 rare  creatures have this toughness)	23%
3	30 (8 rare  creatures have this power)	19%	3	24 (5 rare  creatures have this toughness)	16%
4	18 (8 rare  creatures have this power)	12%	4	20 (7 rare  creatures have this toughness)	12%
5	6 (3 rare  creatures have this power)	4%	5	14 (7 rare  creatures have this toughness)	9%
6	6 (5 rare  creatures have this power)	5%	6	6 (3 rare  creatures have this toughness)	4%
7	3 (2 rare  creatures have this power)	2%	7	2 rare  creatures have this toughness	1%
8	(1 rare  creature has this power)	Negligible	8	No Creatures	NA
9	(1 rare  creature has this power)	Negligible	9	1 rare  creature has this Toughness	Negligible

Evasion

Type	Total	Common	Uncommon	Rare	Percentage of Total Creatures
Flying	24	7	9	8	14%
Protection From…	6	5		1	5%
Land Walk	2	2			1%
Fear	1		1		.006%

What have we learned from all of this data? 

First, 51% of the creatures in Onslaught are 1-3 casting cost, meaning that early creature drops will be consistently seen.

Secondly, we can see that 54% of the creatures have a power of 2 or less and 54% of the creatures have a toughness of 2 or less.  This means that any creature with a 2 power or greater and or a toughness of 3 or greater will have a decisive advantage in combat.  It also puts a high value on low (1-3) casting cost creature enchantments that would push creatures above this envelope.

Thirdly we can see that only 20% of the creatures have Evasion capability.  This means that Evasion on a creature is at a premium and can lead to victory.  Protect these creatures!

* What about the interactions between creature types?

Onslaught hypes the interaction between groups of clerics, goblins, zombies, etc.  Each creature needs to be treated as a combo card in the deck.  As most of the creature type interaction cards are only really useful when 3 get on the board here are your odds in a forty card deck of drawing into 3,4,5, and 6 of a creature type by turn 14 (You will have drawn ½ of your deck at this point).  Note that in sealed you are likely to get approximately 16+ cards in each color.  How many of those cards are going to be the exact same creature type? 

Number of a creature type in your sealed deck	Three	Four	Five	Six
Percentage chance that you will have drawn 3 of the creature type by turn 14	13 percent chance	34 percent chance	55 percent chance	72 Percent chance

* Calculations courtesy of Michael Moore and his deckulator at http://www.implair.com/cgi-bin/deckulator.pl

While the creature type interactions in Onslaught may be very important in Draft and Constructed, I plan on seeing many a player using sub par creatures trying to get one above par trick to work in sealed.  Based on the percentages above I recommend first choosing the good creatures that stand on their own by their toughness, power, and other abilities and then treat it as a bonus if they get to interact with other creatures of the same type.

Part 2:The Creature Enchantments

“Hence the skillful fighter puts himself into a position which makes defeat impossible, and does not miss the moment for defeating the enemy.” – Sun Tzu

First, we will break the enchantments into colors and then inside of each color we will break down into rarity. 

Color	Percentage of Creature Enhancement Cards in Onslaught	Total	Common	Uncommon	Rare
White	0.9%	3	1	1	1
Blue	0.6%	2	2	0	0
Black	0.3%	1	1	0	0
Red	0.3%	1	1	0	0
Green	0.6%	2	1	0	1

What is revealed from this?

We can see that very few creature enchantments exist.  It tells us that a Voltron type deck is not very likely.  This further reinforces that you will be looking for creatures with an efficient casting cost and 3 toughness to swing the battle into your favor.

Ideal creature enchantment cards include all of the Crowns and Improvised armor. 

Part 3:Targeted Creature Removal

“Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.” – Sun Tzu

Now we examine the single target creature removal cards in Onslaught.  Think of terror and lightning bolt.  We will break these down in the same manner as the enchantments.

*Note – I will only be including non-creature cards that can remove the creature from participating in combat.

Color	Percentage of Targeted Removal Cards in Onslaught	Total	Common	Uncommon	Rare
White	2.1%	7	3	2	2
Blue	1.5%	5	2	2	1
Black	3%	10	5	4	1
Red	2.4%	8	5	3
Green	0%	0	0	0	0

What can we extrapolate from this?

As a whole the Onslaught set has very few targeted removal spells.  This tells us that what we put on the board is likely to stay short of massive creature removal or misplayed attacks.

Furthermore, we can extract that combinations of Black, White, and Red should give us the greatest amount of removal to support weenie rush decks.

Ideal removal spells in each color include

White: Pacifism and Oblation

Black: Swat, Smother, Infest, and Death Pulse

Red: Solar Blast, Shock, and Chain of Plasma

Part 4:Non-Creature Instant Combat Effects

“Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.”- Sun Tzu

Now we examine the Instant Combat Effects in Onslaught.   These are the cards like fog, giant growth, and healing salve that can turn the tide of an attack.  Taking a look at the spoiler you can observe that there are several  instant combat effects in each of the colors.  However, very few of these spells are of any quality.  

Important features to look for in these spells include that it would increase power and or toughness, give protection, or prevent damage.  Take note that most of the creature removal, as scant as it is, is highly dependant on toughness and power.

Ideal spells in each color include (excluding removal)

White: Akroma’s Blessing, Inspirit, and Sunfire Balm

Blue: Choking Tethers (Cycle it), and Meddle

Black: Shade’s Breath

Red: Fever Charm

Green: Primal Boost, Run Wild, Tribal Unity, and Wirewood Pride

Part 5:The Sweepers (Massive Creature Removal)

“But a kingdom that has once been destroyed can never come again into being; nor can the dead ever be brought back to life” – Sun Tzu

Now we examine the Massive Removal cards in Onslaught.  These cards are descendants of Wrath of God and Earthquake. Once again, we will break these down into Color and then inside of each color we will break down into rarity.

 

Color	Percentage of Targeted Removal Cards in Onslaught	Total	Common	Uncommon	Rare
White	0.6%	2	0	0	2
Blue	0	0	0	0	0
Black	0.9%	3	1	1	1
Red	0.9%	3	0	2	1
Green	0	0	0	0	0

What can we extrapolate from this?

As a whole the Onslaught set has very few Massive Creature Removal spells.  This allows us to play our armies out as quickly as possible with our only real fears being the four counterspell effects from blue.  It also tells us to value our MCR’s highly as they are very limited in quantity and need to be concealed from our opponent until the maximum effect can be delivered. 

Lastly looking at the Onslaught Spoiler we can determine that Red contains not only most of the targeted removal, but also the uncommon, Slice and Dice. Expect to see this card frequently and be wary of the red player with poor creature quality.

Ideal MCR’s

White: Akroma’s Vengeance

Black: Infest

Red: Slice and Dice, and Starstorm

Part 6:The Counterspells

“In all fighting, the direct method may be used for joining battle, but indirect methods will be needed in order to secure victory.” – Sun Tzu

Our last battlefield check is how many counterspells we are likely face in the environment.  This is important only in checking how likely it is that our opponent would be able to stop our important cards from getting into play. 

	Percentage of Counterspell Cards in Onslaught	Total	Common	Uncommon	Rare
Blue	1.2%	4	1	3	1

Checking out these counterspells we can find that Complicate and Discombobulate are the only non-situational counters (Both uncommon).  Meddle, Ixidor’s Will, and Psychic Trance are all conditional counterspells.  Knowing that there are only 2 solid counterspells ,costing 3 and 4 mana, and both being uncommon we can play around them and thereby take advantage of the game with bomb cards.

Part 7: And Now?

Now that we have covered the environment of Onslaught what is left?

As Sun Tzu pointed out at the start of this article, “The general who wins a battle makes many calculations…” But, we have only covered the what cards to expect from each of our opponents sealed deck.  Even though we have identified that >50% of the creatures will be of low casting cost. That creature evasion is king. That removal is scarce and found in red, white, and black.  That creature enchantments are rare and counterspells are few and far between.  We have not identified how we ourselves will put together our armies. 

This is the final calculation that you must do on your own to achieve victory.  Each sealed deck will have its own army, and it is your duty as its general to calculate out what force can be delivered and what deceptions can be made given the knowledge of the battlefield on which you will attack or force your opponent to siege.

Until next article remember “The art of war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy's not coming, but on our own readiness to receive him; not on the chance of his not attacking, but rather on the fact that we have made our position unassailable.” – Sun Tzu