"Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends, we're so glad you could attend, come inside, come inside."
Welcome back ladies and gents, it is that time of year again. Football coaches are coming out of hibernation (speaking of which, has there ever been a football coach with a tan??? Ever? I remember watching a football game between Hawaii and Fresno St. where everyone on Hawaii had a tan except for the head coach and the head coordinators. Sad really.) and baseball players are talking about striking. Yes, it is time for Seth Burn's 2002 Football Preview!
Answering my own question, I think Steve Spurrier might have once had a tan at Florida, but he's an exception to a lot of rules.
This season is going to be a bit different from the last for a lot of reasons. 9/11 is of course the most obvious, and it will be remembered in a Times Square memorial with Bon Jovi performing. Instead of the traditional 6 divisions we now have 8. It actually makes quite a bit of sense as given time most of these divisions will keep old rivalries while the new divisions should form great new rivalries. Seattle vs. San Francisco with Holmgren vs. Mariucci, Houston vs. Indianapolis vs. Tennessee. Peyton Manning should love visiting Tennessee once a year. Even better for Peyton is the escape from having to go to Miami once a year. Tampa Bay escapes the windy city and the frozen tundra. Arizona… well they aren't good enough to have a regular rivalry with anyone. Maybe a division of Cincinnati, Houston, Arizona, and Detroit would eventually form some good rivalries… but Houston would probably just rise up and crush the rest of the division given time. Shrug. The best NFC divisional rivalries this year look to be Philadelphia vs. Washington in the East, Green Bay vs. Chicago in the North, and St. Louis vs. San Francisco in the West. The South? With all due respect to Gruden and his Shula-like jaw I have doubts as to how good his team is and of how good anyone else in that division is. Of course, now that I have committed this to posterity watch Atlanta play Tampa Bay in the NFC championship game. As for the AFC every matchup in the East is close and bitter. Miami still hates Buffalo for denying Dan Marino a chance to face Dallas in the Super Bowl. New England has a history with both Buffalo and the Jets. Miami fiercely hates the Jets and the feeling is mutual. I suppose the friendliest matchup in the division is the Bills vs. the Jets and they still don't like each other all that much. Also, I see all 4 teams as being good enough to be worthy of calling every game a rivalry game. No toilet bowls (TM) here (rights reserved by Cleveland and Cincinnati). Speaking of, Cleveland and Pittsburgh look to have a fairly serious rivalry in the North. Everyone talks about how Washington is Florida North but Cleveland should get credit for being Miami North. Butch Davis has installed a gangster mentality there and they are rapidly becoming one of the dirtiest teams in football. Al Davis would be proud. Indianapolis and Tennessee should have a fairly vibrant rivalry from the get go if Tony Dungy can install a defense and Tennessee can fully recover from the nagging injuries of last year. Like the AFC East, the AFC West is a vicious blood bath of enmity and hatred, chiefly among Denver and Oakland, but also with Denver-Kansas City and Oakland-everybody. Mike Shanahan and Al Davis are best friends compared to Al Davis and commissioner Paul Taglibughe.
I am not an Emmitt Smith fan but I do respect his accomplishments. Look for him to break Walter Payton's record sometime around mid-season.
Without further ado, the team previews:
The NFC East:
Washington- 11-5 Philadelphia- 11-5 New York Giants- 9-7 Dallas- 5-11
Yes, I believe in Steve Spurrier. Even more than that, I believe in Marvin Lewis. Washington will be a scary team on both sides of the ball. I have Washington beating Philadelphia on the 6th tiebreaker of point differential. I go through the season game by game so to come up with Steve Spurrier winning the division by running up the score seems very funny to me. Philadelphia is a better team than Washington but that won't be enough given their harder schedule. The Giants aren't that far removed from a Super Bowl appearance, but if it seems like it is a long time ago for the Giants think about it from the Ravens perspective… or the Vikings perspective. Of the 4 championship game teams of 2 years ago only Oakland remains strong. Dallas had a phenomenal draft but I see a lousy offense keeping this team down another year.
Washington Redskins- Gatorball. The Gators won 1 championship under Spurrier (scoring 62 points against Bobby Bowden's Seminole's if I remember correctly) and they did it with a 50-50 run-pass ratio. If they win the division Stephen Davis the man who will carry them. Who will start at quarterback? Who will the quarterback through to? Well, the wide receiver question isn't that tough. Jacquez Green and Rod Gardner look to be the top receivers. Reidel Anthony should also find his game now that he is back under his old coach. I don't think either Shane Matthews or Danny Weurfell will lock up the job. Platoons can work in baseball, and in Florida, so we'll see if they work in Washington. Chris Samuels will help make sure neither quarterback gets killed in action. Like most offensive lines there has been some juggling but Washington's O-line looks better than most. The entire defense looks positively frightening on paper. Imagine Marvin Lewis turning Dan Wilkinson into the football player he was supposed to be when the Bengals made him the #1 pick in the 1994 draft. Bruce Smith and Marco Coleman are good insofar as they have gas left in the tank. Renaldo Wynn is also a nice pickup from the Jags (who positively bleed talent this offseason). Lavar Arrington is a manimal. Jeremiah Trotter and Jesse Armstead are both very good and very motivated. Perhaps the best LB core in football. Champ Bailey can take away most team's top wide receiver. Fred Smoot is another young solid corner. Darrel Green is 42 and still can run a 4.4 along with the other Redskin corners. Sam Shade and David Terrell are both a bit flawed at safety but if you have to have a weakness in your defense safety is it. Even so, both are merely average in a defense filled with gems and potential gems. Of course many great paper defenses have proved shredable when the regular season came around. Miami, Kansas City, and Washington have all felt this phenomenon. This year? I say Washington comes together and beats the Rams November 24th. This will be a scary team in the postseason.
Philadelphia Eagles- They came together last season and fell one Marshall Faulk drive away from a Super Bowl trip. This year it will be tougher as the schedule gets harder and Washington rises up. Also, they barely escaped the Giants in both matchups last season. Getting back to the NFC championship game is no easy task. Donavan McNabb is smart, big, fast, and tough. Good qualities in any position but perhaps most important at quarterback. A rich man's Kordell Stewart (and a rich man's Randall Cunningham for that matter) McNabb is capable of dragging a marginally talented team to the top of the game. However, Duce Staley is gimpy, Brian Westbrook is a rookie, and Correll Buckhalter looks to be gone for the season. Not good. Quick, name a Philadelphia wide receiver (kudo's to anyone who caught that pun). Chad Lewis doesn't count even if he is the second best skill player on Philly's offense. He's a quality tight end but if the wide receivers aren't good enough collectively to protect him from double teaming it will be a long season. James Thrash, Todd Pinkson, and Freddie Mitchell have the talent to put points on the board, but they need to live up to their potential. That is especially true for Mitchell. He was supposed to light up the Eagles straight out of UCLA last year. If he does it this year no one will mind. Tra Thomas leads a slightly above average offensive line. Hugh Douglas keys a solid if unspectacular D-line. I think the loss of Jeremiah Trotter will hurt the Eagles more than most people are expecting. Carlos Emmons will need Barry Gardner and Shawn Barber to step up. Emmons is a talented player and it remains to be seen if he will be one among many on the defense. The secondary is loaded like no team. Troy Vincent, Bobby Taylor, Al Harris, rookie Lito Sheppard, and rookie Sheldon Brown are 5 talented cornerbacks. Add free safety Brian Dawkins, strong safety Blaine Bishop, and rookie Michael Lewis and you have a top safety corps. This is a team that is ready to face the Rams. Can they stop Marshall Faulk? We'll see. They have to get past Gatorball first.
My beloved New York Giants- Go Rambo! Jeremy Shockey is Rambo II to Mark Bavaro's original role of Rambo. It is kind of sad to put the weight of an entire franchise on a rookie tight end. The truth is this is a team that is going to win a lot of 14-13 and 12-10 games. Quarterback Kerry Collins is solid but nothing more. He had a miracle year in 2000 and I don't see that happening again. However, he has been to 2 NFC championship games so a third is possible. Ron Dayne is a bust at running back, almost embarrassingly so. Ron Dayne looks like a bowling ball and tries to run like twinkle toes. I cringe every time he "hops" in the backfield while trying to set up a run or find a hole. Tiki Barber has a similar running style but he is smaller, quicker, and tougher than Dayne. Only Marshall Faulk bettered Barber's 5.2 yard average last year. Good company. Jeremy Shockey should clear some space for wide receivers Armani Toomer, Ron Dixon, and Tim Carter. Ike Hilliard is a heartbreaker who drops must-catch balls, and then gets hurt. Take away Shockey and you can understand why Collins regressed. The weakest link on the offense is the O-line. Glenn Parker, Lomas Brown, and Ron Stone were 3 cornerstones on the 2000 team. All dropped off in 2001 and all are now gone. Suffice it to say that this line is made up of 3 undrafted free agents, Dusty Zeigler, and ex-bust Luke Petitgout. Ruh-roh Shaggy. It will be up to the defense to lead the team to the 9 wins I have predicted. Forget the fake sack against Brett Favre; Michael Strahan was still the best defensive player in football. Warren Sapp can say whatever he wants but like Strahan he missed his chance at a ring so it really doesn't matter what kind of trash either one talks. Keith Hamilton is a monster when healthy and if he stays healthy this year he'll free up room for Strahan. Funny Strahan anecdote: Last year I was walking through the subway and looking at the posters. Most of them were defaced with blackened-out teeth, mustaches, etc. Then I came to a poster with Michael Strahan smiling. The vandals had painted in the gap in Strahan's teeth and moved on. I am still laughing at that. Mike Barrow is a machine at middle linebacker. Brandon Short and Dhani Jones both need to step up to firm up the LB corps. Will Allen and Will Peterson are both solid at cornerback. Shaun Williams was a steal when the Giants drafted him and can shine at strong safety. Jason Sehorn will never be the talent he was before the injury but he can still be a solid free safety. In a perfect world Omar Stoutmire would be the odd man out at free safety but we'll see what the Giant's staff decides to do.
Dallas Cowboys- Gawd, how I still hate dem Cowboys. Quincy Carter at QB? An aging Emmitt Smith stealing playing time from Troy Hambrick at running back. Tight end Tony McGee wasn't good when he was good and has declined. Rocket Ismail and Joey Galloway sound good at wide receiver but both seem to come up small at game time. Antonio Bryant was a steal for the Cowboys in the second round and when they start getting good in a few years he will be part of the reason. Without getting into details suffice it to say that Dallas has an offensive line most teams envy and it will be the reason the offense is respectable. As for the defense it really lacks major weaknesses. Ebenezer Ekuban (great name), Greg Ellis, La'Roi Glover, and Brandon Noble form a solid D-line. Dat Nguyen and Dexter Coakley looked great at linebacker last season while Markus Steele didn't disappoint. Kevin Hardy looks to replace Steele and will be an improvement if he stays healthy. Every true Cowboy hater cursed vehemently when Dallas traded down and still nabbed prize safety Roy Williams. I expect to hate Roy Williams for years to come. Darren Woodson pairs up to form a potential all-pro safety tandem. As good as the safeties are, the corners are as questionable. Bryant Westbrook is not the player he used to be before tearing his Achilles. Mario Edwards is mediocre. The Cowboys might be good sometime in the near future but this isn't the year. That is, unless I am wrong about Quincy Carter. If he is for real we're looking at an 8-8 team.
The NFC North:
Chicago Bears- 11-5 Green Bay Packers- 10-6 Minnesota Vikings- 8-8 Detroit Lions- 3-13
Da' Bears won the division last year with smoke, mirrors, and a defense that could stop a runaway train. They will be a better team this year as soon as Chris Chandler wins the quarterback job away from Jim Miller. The best quarterback in this division is Brett Favre although he is getting older. The Packers might be the best team in the division but I think the Bears are for real. So what if Green Bay can win at Soldier Field? This year the Bears are on the road to Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Ill. Minnesota has the best QB-WR combo of the future in Daunte Culpepper-Randy Moss, but only 1 of those 2 plays hard. Hint: not Moss. As for the Lions? Well, they are more like kittens right now.
Chicago Bear- Da' Bears! Jim Miller is a solid quarterback and it is actually a good sign for the Bears is he is good enough and stays healthy enough to keep Chris Chandler on the bench. Of course, both of these quarterbacks have been known to get hurt so lets not forget Mr. Henry Burris of Temple University. Heh. Running back Anthony Thomas earned a great nickname, the A-train. Wide receiver Marcus Robinson better stay healthy. Tight end Freddy Baxter was nothing special with the Jets. Marty Booker stepped up in Robinson's absence and caught 100 passes. Nice job. David Terrell and Dez White have the talent, but it is unclear they have the desire to be top flight NFL receivers. Center Olin Kreutz leads a very good offensive line. The O-line is probably the strongest part of the offense and should make the skill players look better than they are. The D-line of Ted Washington and Keith Traylor inside, and Phillip Daniels and Bryan Robinson outside is as strong as any in football. Pass rusher Brian McKenzie should do well coming off the bench. Like Lavar Arrington, Brian Ulracher is a manimal. He's great and getting better. Rosevelt Colvin and Warrick Holdman round out an elite linebacker corps. R.W. McQuarters is the team's best cornerback. Either Jerry Azumah or Roosevelt Williams will be the other starting cornerback. Either one is a drop-off from McQuarters. Free safety Mike Brown was nothing short of a hero on defense last year returning two interceptions for game winning touchdowns. He also hit like a bull. Strong safety Mike Green will need to step up to keep this defense flawless. The Eagles exposed this team last year. This year the offense will need to keep pace with the defense. I think it will. As always, time will tell.
Green Bay Packers- 6 interceptions. Bad way to go. Quarterback Brett Favre is the key. If he gets hurt the season ends, not unlike Philly and McNabb. Running back Ahman Green was a steal from the Seahawks. Tight end Bubba Franks isn't as good as his stats (I should know, I had him on my fantasy team before he was voted off the island). Terry Glenn leads the wide receiver corps. Bad sign? Well, I suspect Glenn will have an all-pro year if rookie Javon Walker and Robert Ferguson take some of the pressure off of him. Both have the kind of talent to make this offense special. Donald Driver is a solid fourth receiver who does a great Lambeau leap. If Favre puts too much pressure on Glenn he might implode. The offensive line avoids headlines which is always a good thing. Few sacks, few breakdowns, headlines where they belong, on the skill players. The preseason will determine who starts on the D-line but no matter who starts there will be a lot of substitutions. Joe Johnson, Vinnie Holliday, Gilbert Brown, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, and Cletidus Hunt team up to form a very strong defensive line. The linebacking corps is starless. The defensive backs the Packers drafted to keep up with the Vikings are coming into their own. Mike McKenzie, Tyrone Williams, Darren Sharper, and LeRoy Butler form a very good defensive backfield. This team can make a run for the brass ring but looks to have a few too many holes, specifically at the wide receiver position. I just don't believe that Glenn has matured. I Favre is a great quarterback but he can be tough to play for if you aren't man enough to take responsibility for your mistakes. That isn't Glenn's strong point.
Minnesota Vikings- No more coach Green? Who is going to coddle Randy Moss? Coach Tice? Blasphemy! If Mike Tice is smart he will have the cajones to bench Randy Moss when he takes time off on the field. On the plus side Tice will be gearing the offense more towards Moss. Daunte Culpepper is freaking huge at quarterback. He is big, strong, smart, and fast. Hey, he reminds me of someone in Philly… I am still angry at Michael Bennett for bailing on my fantasy team last year. He was a Badger too! Grrr… All personal grudges aside he has the talent to take pressure off of Culpepper but he needs to play smarter. Tight end Byron Chamberlain is the go to guy after Moss. I have no idea who the second wide out is going to be as the position is up for grabs this preseason. Mike Tice is a former O-line coach and he has to be ecstatic to have rookie Bryant McKinnie on the line. He never gave up a sack in college so it will be interesting to see who gets the first scalp off him. The rest of the O-line is good if healthy. Last year that wasn't the case and the team suffered. The defense is ugly. I mean really ugly. 12 beers and a shot of rum coyote ugly. I'm not giving any of them name recognition yet. Let me just say that the Vikings wins are going to come from an offense that can outrace its defense.
Detroit Lions- Sorry Ivan. This team is a stinker. However, Joey Harrington is a winner and the Lions were wise to draft him. Running back James Stewart is an utter pile and I encourage all my fantasy football opposition to covet him. Actually, Stewart did average 4.8 yards per carry last year but he also got hurt and the back-ups were horrible. The wide receiver corps is another pile. Az-Zahir Hakim would still be a Ram if they thought he could avoid fumbles. Bill Schroeder was great early in the season (For me no less) but dropped off and ended up in Favre's doghouse. If you can't catch balls with Favre as your quarterback it doesn't look good. Germane Crowell is another with wide receiver hopeful but he needs to avoid injuries. The offensive line is poor. Defensive end Shaun Rogers was a find last year in the second round for the Lions and hopefully Kalimba Edwards will be another. Luther Ellis and Robert Porcher round out the strongest unit on the team. However, the linebacking corps and the defensive backfield are both filled with question marks so this year is pure rebuilding. I hope Joey Harrington learns fast.
The NFC South:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 10-6 Atlanta Falcons- 6-10 Carolina Panthers- 6-10 New Orleans- 5-11
What a poor division. Tampa Bay gets to 10 wins only because they have such soft company. The Buccaneers embarrassed themselves in their coaching search and overpaid for Jon Gruden even if he is a great coach. The Saints are going to be a train wreck. Their early season schedule is a nightmare and the team will fall apart. Atlanta and Carolina are on the way up but neither is ready to be a winner just yet.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Quarterback Brad Johnson is smart but lacks a strong arm. Rob Johnson has the physical tools but holds on to the ball as if he were paid by the sack. Shaun King had and blew his chance. I suppose one of these three might step up and improve. Your guess is as good as mine as to which one. Well, my guess is Rob Johnson as physical tools equates to potential and if the Bucs are to be serious contenders they'll need what Rob Johnson can give them. Michael Pittman is their new feature back and he is an ex-Cardinal, rarely if ever a good sign. Tight end Ken Dilger is pretty good, and Wide Receiver Keyshawn Johnson is very good. However, 106 catches for 1 touchdown is a record you will never see broken. Joe Jurevicius has skills to be a solid compliment to Keyshawn. The Bucs aren't deep at wide receiver. I like the Bucs offensive line more than most analysts do. Bill Muir is a great O-line coach and he did well with the Jets. I expect him to keep whichever quarterback gets the job safe. Except if Rob Johnson gets the job. Then it is mission impossible. Defensive lineman Warren Sapp is great but needs to stay in shape. Simeon Rice, Anthony McFarland, and Marcus Jones round out a very good defensive line. On paper none is better. However, last year this unit didn't live up to its hype. Derrick Brooks leads an average linebacking corps. Brian Kelly and Ronde Barber are both quite good at cornerback and are complimented by safeties Brian Lynch and Dexter Jackson. Jackson needs to improve from last year and Lynch needs to stay young. The Bucs might feel the loss of corner Donnie Abraham. I rarely mention special teams but Martin Gramatica is one of the best kickers in the game even if he is coming off an off year. The Bucs window appears to have closed even though they are in a gift of a division and should start the playoffs with a home game.
Atlanta Falcons- Win now or else? I hope not because if so we'll find out what else means. Michael Vick should be a great pro football player one day but that day isn't going to come around this year. Part of the problem will be Reeves, unless he's learned from his mistakes with John Elway. If so, Reeves will mold the offense around Vick instead of the other way around. Of course, Vick has a work ethic closer to that of Ryan Leaf than to Peyton Manning. I'm not saying he's the next Leaf, he isn't. He should be great one day, but he's still a kid. He would be a senior in college this year. Let's consider next year the first year to even start judging him. I don't understand what the Falcons are doing at running back. T.J. Duckett and Warrick Dunn will carry the load, with some help from Bob Christian. Vick can throw to a decent tight end whether Reggie Kelly or Alge Crumpler is on the field. Brian Finneran and Shawn Jefferson lead a very poor wide receivers corps. To make things worse the Falcons also have a weak offensive line. If Wade Phillips forces a 3-4 defense onto his current personal we might see one of the worst defenses of the modern era. If they stick with a 4-3 they should be just a tad below average as the 4-3 fits defensive ends Patrick Kearney and Brady Smith, as well as linebacker Keith Brooking. In either case the secondary is solid if a tad old. Cornerbacks Ashley Ambrose and Ray Buchanan are both wily old veterans. As for the safeties, let's wait a few preseason games before we anoint any of them with the title of starter. This team might be good in a few years if Vick and Duckett are for real, but it will take time and much more talent.
Carolina Panthers- OK, so maybe I am showing a little love to my man John Fox. Then again, maybe quarterback Chris Weinke can recover the magic from Florida St., running back DeShaun Foster will win NFC offensive rookie of the year, the offensive line will maintain its high level of play, Julius Peppers will win defensive rookie of the year and, and, and… ok, so maybe not. This team has a weak receiving corps, a weak linebacking corps, and a weak defensive backfield. What do you expect from a team that went 1-15 the year before? So why the 6 wins? Because teams with good offensive lines, good coaching, and hot rookies are worth 6 wins. Really a lot of pressure will fall on Chris Weinke to make chicken salad out of... some eggs, a head of lettuce, and some tomato seeds. It can be done but it will take some time and effort.
New Orleans Saints- I remember the Saints of the last 4 weeks of last season. They were outscored by 28 points a game. This team quit and didn't get better in the offseason. Week 1: @ Tampa Bay. Loss. Week 2: Green Bay. Loss. Week 3: @ Chicago. Loss. Week 4: @ Detroit. Loss. Even mighty Detroit isn't a horrible team at home and effort outdoes talent. I actually see this as an 0-fer bowl as it's Detroit's first win. Week 5: Pittsburgh. Loss. Week 6: Washington. Blowout loss. Week 7: San Francisco. Loss. It isn't until October 27th when Michael Vick comes to town do I see the Saint's bagging a win. What happened here? I still am not sure. There was a bit of a talent exodus from the defense. Quarterback Aaron Brooks regressed. However, for the most part I think this team just flat out quit. Aaron Brooks is still young and very talented. Running back Deuce McAllister has the speed and hands to control a game. The wide receiving corps is actually fairly scary. Joe Horn, Jerome Pathon, and Donte Stallworth (who drifted down to the ecstatic Saints with the 13th pick) are all fast, Stallworth especially so. Horn is a potential all pro. Even the offensive line is strong with another draft steal center LeCharles Bentley. The defensive line is pretty good. Norman Hand's power (if in shape), rookie Charles Grant's speed (another good pick), Grady Jackson's power, and Darren Howard's technique combine to form a unit that should be able to control games, or at least help keep the Saint's in them. The linebacking corps is alternately too old (Bryan Cox), or too young (rookie James Allen). Linebacker Charlie Clemons is their best on the unit and keeps it from being terrible. Before Dale Carter was lost for the season due to substance abuse violations the secondary was in pretty good shape. Now it is in trouble unless Michael Hawthorne and Kevin Mathis step up. Safeties Sammie Knight and Jay Bellamy are both talented and look like world beaters when they guess right. However, every once in a while they guess wrong and another ESPN Primetime highlight is born.
The NFC West:
San Francisco 49ers- 14-2 St. Louis Rams- 13-3 Seattle Seahawks- 5-11 Arizona Cardinals- 4-12
Last year I raised a few eyebrows when I predicted the 49ers would rise up and return to the playoffs. This year I have them taking the next step and return to being one of the best teams in football. The Rams might still be better than the 49ers but their schedule is much harder. The Seahawks were the clear Super Bowl favorites until Trent Dilfer and his 15 game winning streak got hurt (remove tongue from cheek). The Cardinals… what can I say? The can have good players but always seem to lose them and never do anything special when they have them. No division is tougher at the top than the NFC West. The Rams have a 6 game winning streak over the 49ers. I say it ends October 6th in San Francisco.
San Francisco 49ers- I still hate this team. They denied Dan Marino a ring. In case you haven't guessed I used to be a Dolphin fan when Marino and Shula led the fish. I also was a fan of Pete Rozelle and Carmen Policy and co. were always on the side of evil while Mara and Rooney and co. were always on the side of good. When the 49ers and Dallas were the two best teams in football it was very tough for me. I was ecstatic when Green Bay rose up and first took down the 49ers, then finally caught and passed Dallas. I hate to say it, but, they're back. Steve Mariucci, Bill Walsh, and Terry Donahue have put the team together. Jeff Garcia might not be the most intimidating quarterback out there, but he is one of the most effective. Garrison Hearst and Kevan Barlow combined to lead the best rushing team in the NFC last year. Tight end Eric Johnson fits well in the West Coast Offense (designed in Cincinnati by Bill Walsh). Terrell Owens might be the best wide receiver in football and he'll get better the closer he gets to a ring. J.J. Stokes and Tai Streets are both good compliments to Owens, although neither is a star waiting to happen. The offensive line was good last year and got better with the addition of ex-Giant Ron Stone. The offense isn't the most intimidating on paper but it gets points on the board. The defense pitched 3 shutouts in their last 6 games, and held Philadelphia to 3 points in the "goal line stand game." 7 tries within the 2 yard line ending with an interception. Dana Stubblefield and Bryant Young unite for a tough tackle combo. Andre Carter and John Engelberger are "good enough" at end. The linebacking corps is a group of improving youngsters who came on late last season. The 49ers didn't have the corners to face the Rams last year so the picked up cornerback Mike Rumph from Miami with their first round draft pick. Ahmed Plummer has blossomed into a fine cornerback who will take away the left side of the field. Jason Webster was an under par third corner but is an above average third corner. I can't say the 49ers are better than the Rams on paper, but if the 49ers team they appeared to be at the end of last season then they can beat the team to beat in the NFC, the St. Louis Rams.
St. Louis Rams- Turn in your Mensa card Mike Martz. You were out-geniused in the Super Bowl Bill Belichick and you did it to yourself. Marshall Faulk got you past the Eagles, so where was he when you needed him? Pass blocking or running a route. Judging by points the Rams have the best offense in the history of football. The have scored over 500 points in each of the last 3 seasons. However, their offense is exceedingly risky and will commit a lot of turnovers. I hate it when people say that only the Rams can beat the Rams and even then it takes a lot of turnovers. If you base your offense largely on the deep pass you will commit a lot of turnovers even if you score quite a few points. If the Rams commit too many turnovers and lose a game they didn't beat themselves, the other team beat them. Coaches often preach that if their team just had committed fewer mistakes they would won the game they just lost. If a 170 pound man running across the middle catches a ball then gets smashed by a 190 pound safety who knows neither remorse nor shame, and the wide receiver fumbles the ball as he loses consciousness, that was NOT a mistake. Well, maybe the offensive coordinator shouldn't have called that play, but that is beside the point. The Fumble that kept the Browns out of the Super Bowl and put the Broncos into it, that was a Mistake. End of rant. The Rams have the best quarterback and the best running back in football. Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt headline the receiving corps that could lose either and still be better than most. Ricky Proehl and Terrence Wilkins (stolen from the Colts for a 3rd round pick) are the best backup pair of wide receivers in the NFL. Eric Crouch might be used as a slash if he can pick up the offense swiftly. The offensive line is above average and is led by former #1 pick Orlando Pace. Tight end Ernie Conwell is vastly underrated and rounds out the scariest offense in football. The defense was no name to begin with so I'll concentrate on its linchpin: Aeneas Williams. Lovie Smith's scheme and Williams' leadership made this defense into one of the best in the league last year. If Williams can pull a Darrell Green and escape the ravages of age the defense should maintain a high level. However, if he drops then Dexter McCleon and Dre Bly will be exposed for what they are: #2 corners. The Rams are still the best team in football on paper, but Mike Martz is 0 for 2 when trying to win the Super Bowl with the best team in paper. In 2000 the defense fell apart. In 2001 they fell just short against the miracle Patriots. In 2002? Read on.
Seattle Seahawks- The offense looked presentable a week ago. Quarterback Trent Dilfer was riding a 15 game winning streak and had a ring. Now he is hurt and as of right now I am not certain how bad the injury. Running back Shaun Alexander is as explosive as they come but he needs to round out his game. Rookie tight end Jeremy Stevens is an improvement at the position. The Seahawks wanted Daniel Graham but the Patriots nabbed him. Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson are actually a pretty effective wide receiver pair on paper. Robinson needs to live up to his talent though. Bobby Engram is a pretty dependable third target. The offensive line is a bit below average, but isn't a nightmare by any means. I am not sold on the Seahawks defensive line. I think John Randle is a showboat who is past his time. Lamar King and Antonia Cochran need to develop and Chad Eaton needs to keep doing the dirty work that Randle avoids. Linebacker Levon Kirkland isn't the player he was with the Steelers but he's still pretty good. The preseason will determine which linebackers get to start when the regular season roles around. Chad Brown is aging. Anthony Simmons is still pretty good though. Shawn Springs: healthy or no? I don't know. I am not sure who the #2 cornerback is but my guess is Ken Lucas wins the spot. Marcus Robinson and Reggie Tongue complete an unspectacular secondary. All kidding aside the Seahawks were a pretty good team under a healthy Dilfer but even if healthy they have a rock hard schedule. A long season for the Hawks fans.
Arizona Cardinals- Sad really. Jake Plummer had such potential. Running back Thomas Jones was taken over Brian Ulracher in with the seventh pick in the 2000 draft. Bad call, but Jones is getting better. Tight end Freddie Jones is recovering from injury but he's got talent and can be a weapon if healthy. Wide Receiver David Boston should have been on my fantasy team but I took... someone else. L He's very, very good. Frank Sanders needs to be better on the other side to compliment Boston. MayTay Jenkins can explode down the field. Now all he needs to do is learn how to catch the ball. The offensive line has talent but the players realize they are Cardinals so they don't bust their buts. L.J. Shelton is a prime example. Anthony Clement and Leonard Davis are monsters when they play to their potential. Rookie Wendall Bryant (Badger!) should improve a defensive line that looks shameful is paper. The linebacking corps is also a bit thin. They need linebacker Rob Fredrickson to stay healthy as he is the leader of the unit. The defensive backfield is also a question mark, although Duane Starks has the potential to be a shutdown corner. Free safety Kwamie Lassiter had a pro bowl year in 2001 with 9 Int's, so this unit can be explosive.
The AFC:
There was a time in my life when I didn't believe I'd ever see an AFC team with the Super Bowl. The NFC won 13 in a row before Terrell Davis and the Broncos "Won one for John!" Now the AFC has won 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls. Both of the blowouts in the last 5 years were won by the AFC, while the AFC has won 2 of the 3 thrillers. This year the NFC is roughly a 2.5 point favorite before the season begins. This is clearly due to the expectation that the Rams will get to the Super Bowl, and that their most likely opponent is the Steelers. The NFC has a group of 5 expected powerhouses with the Rams, 49ers, Eagles, Packers, and Bucs. The AFC counters with the Steelers, Dolphins, Colts, Raiders, and Broncos. Wherefore art the champs? Well, they aren't even expected to get 10 wins this year, let alone win the AFC. We'll see though, they play the games. Will the Patriots have a super letdown like the New York Giants always did? Or will they be able to defend like the Broncos? Read on to find out. J
The AFC East:
New England Patriots- 11-5 Miami Dolphins- 10-6 New York Jets- 9-7 Buffalo Bills- 6-10
The Patriots were clearly a fluke given that they needed an overturned call to beat the Raiders, special teams heroics to beat the Steelers, and, and, and… they beat the Rams fair and square. They outhit the Rams, had a better gameplan, and exploited the Rams weaknesses by turning 2 turnovers into 2 touchdowns. In the end Bill Belichick had the balls to go for victory late in the game and Adam Vinatieri delivered, with a little help from Tom Brady and Troy Brown. The Dolphins picked up Ricky Williams from the Saints but the dirty little secret of running games is that the offensive line does most of the work and the running backs get most of the credit. Ricky is a tough runner but he'll find the holes a bit small for his liking. My heart says the Jets are the best team in this division and that only the Steelers are a better team in the AFC. My head says Vinny is going to turn 39 this season. As for the Bills, they will be much better than last year but this is the toughest division in football and the defense still needs to rebuild.
The Defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots- Eh tu Red Sox? Tom Brady isn't going to go down as one of the greatest Quarterbacks of all time but he is better than most NFL quarterbacks. Simply put he is a winner. The Patriots were a 14-3 team under him last season. Damon Huard is the #2 QB so Brady can afford to miss a few quarters but not a few games. The running game is a bit suspect as Antowain Smith needs to stay both hungry and healthy. Kevin Faulk is explosive on third down. The tight end unit went from a weakness to a strength in the off season. Rookie Daniel Graham is almost as talented as Jeremy Shockey. Cam Cleeland is another receiving threat if he can stay healthy. Christian Fauria is the best blocker of the 3 and should be used as part of a lot of 2 tight end sets. Wide receivers Troy Brown and David Patton proved they were the most underrated receiving tandem in football. Rookie wide receiver Deion Branch is a younger faster Troy Brown, but will need to become as "football smart" to crack the starting lineup. The offensive line looks average on paper although they didn't lose anyone in the offseason. The defense begins with Bill Belichick. The players on the defensive line are as close to nameless as you are going to find. Because of how much their defense is based on outthinking an offense the talent of the individual lineman matters less in this scheme than in most. That doesn't hold true for the secondary as there a lack of speed is devastating no matter what. Cornerback Ty Law is a prototype corner. Otis Smith is getting old so pickup Tom Knight from Arizona had better come into his own and learn Belichick's schemes fast. Safeties Lawyer Milloy and Tebucky Jones are excellent vs. the run but neither is a third cornerback. Still, this defense is all about mind over matter. They humbled the Rams in the Super Bowl and they remain a threat to win again.
Miami Dolphins- Grand Theft Auto III: Vice City comes out in October and it is set in Miami in the 80's. I am curious to see if people in the game will walk around with #13 Dolphin jerseys. Ah, the joy that was being a Dolphin fan in the age of Dan Marino. Jay Fiedler just isn't the same. Neither is Cade McNown who got run out of town in Chicago. I guess he just got too used to being the Man at UCLA. We all know Ricky Williams is very talented. He has small hands so fumbles remain a worry. The Dolphins platoon at tight end with Jed Weaver being the receiver and Shawn Draper replacing Hunter Goodwin as the blocker. Chris Chamber is the most exciting wide receiver Miami has had since the days of the Marks brothers (Duper and Clayton). Oronde Gadsden has become the prototype possession receiver who simply outfights defends for jump balls in the endzone. All I want to say about the Miami offensive line is that if Brent Smith or Marcus Spriggs can't recover completely from injuries and handle the left tackle position then Miami is screwed. Last year they were a solid pass blocking team but that was partly due to the design of the offense where they ran a lot of quick passes and rollouts. This year they want to produce a power running game and it looks very sketchy. The defensive line is a question mark. If Daryl Gardner returns from back surgery at 100% this line is very good as Jason Taylor is a poor man's Javon Kearse at end, Tim Bowens is a superb run stuffer in the middle, and offseason pickup Larry Chester should help ease the pain of losing Kenny Mixon. Linebacker Zach Thomas leads the defense. He needs the defensive line to keep blockers off of him as he is undersized. Morlon Greenwood is young and improving. Derrick Rogers is the exact opposite so we might not be seeing as much of him. The defensive backfield is as good as you are going to find. Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain are both legitimate shut down corners. Jamar Fletcher is another Badger who is exceedingly talented and will make this unit downright unfair if he recovers from injuries and reaches his potential. Safeties Brock Marion and Arturo Freeman aren't as exceptional as the cornerbacks but they are good enough to not be a drag on the defensive backfield. The special teams are above average. The Dolphins haven't done much in the playoffs lately but they are the only team in football with a winning record in each of the last 5 years. The Jets, Packers, and Bucs have each managed not to have a losing record but no one matches the fish when it comes to avoiding mediocrity. Problem is the Dolphins seem to get worse rather than better late in the season. In September and October they run out fast and in November and December they slow down. Finally in January they crash. This year? Their schedule is murder throughout so I expect a long season for the fish.
The New York Jets- J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, JETS! I can feel an energy emanating from this team. The smell of hope. The electricity of speed on offense, strength on defense, and a confluence of minds that can bring it together. Is this the year we can stop reliving Broadway Joe and start celebrating the Golden Age of Vinny? I don't know, preseason is so hard to judge. Vinny is going to turn 39 this year. He's been somewhat injury prone but he has the game if he can stay healthy. I was overjoyed when the Jets grabbed Chad Pennington but all he's been able to do is carry a clipboard. I think that the Jets will go down if Vinny goes down. The same holds true at running back as Curtis Martin is the player that legitimizes the Jets offense. He is a future Hall of Famer. Lamont Jordan was a monster as a rookie, averaging 7.5 yards per carry. Expect him to get the ball more this year to keep Martin fresh. Richie Anderson is a hybrid at fullback as he is great coming out of the backfield. Outside of the Rams I wouldn't trade the Jets running back unit for anyone's. Tight end Anthony Becht will never live up to expectations, but he is still improving and should be above average this season. Laveranues Coles and Santana Moss are as fast a pair of receivers as you will find in the league. Coles developed into an A-list receiver last year, something Moss still needs to do. Wayne Chrebet is better than he looked last season. He is a good possession receiver but he has more game than that and he has been showing it this preseason. The Jets skill players on offense are definitely a reason for optimism. The offensive line is going to miss coach Bill Muir, but Kevin Mawae is still there. The offensive line should remain one of the best around, although I will be a bit nervous if I see Jumbo Elliott out there. He's been playing as long as I remember, and that's a pretty long time(note, that includes his days at Michigan). Where the offensive optimism ends the defensive... curiosity begins. The talent is there on paper. Defensive end John Abraham is an explosive talent. Shaun Ellis is going back to end and should be a potential pro bowler. Rookie Bryan Thomas is adjusting switching from the right side to the left, but once he gets used to the switch he should perform at a high level and make all those Jets fans that booed him on draft day eat their boos. Larry Webster and Jason Ferguson are pretty good on the inside, although Ferguson needs to recover from injuries. The linebacker corps becomes one big question: Cowart or no? Marvin Jones and Mo Lewis are pretty good linebackers who were great a few years ago. Perhaps if the smell a ring they'll be great again. If Cowart returns to his elite level of 2000 the Jets front 7 will be as good as any in football. Cornerbacks Donnie Abraham and Aaron Beasley fit Herm Edwards scheme better than departed Aaron Glenn and Marcus Coleman, but it remains to be seen if they still have the talent to not be the weak links on defense. Safeties Sam Garnes and Damien Robinson are not great but defensive backs are always better when the front 7 can put pressure on the quarterback. Coach Herm Edwards (The Herminator) is clearly ready to unleash some Jet propelled Herm Warfare on the rest of the league.
Buffalo Bills- Great job on draft day getting Bledsoe for next year's first round pick. That meant they were able to grab offensive lineman Mike Williams of Texas. They grow 'em big in Texas and Mike should help keep Bledsoe safe. He needs to stay healthy because Alex Van Pelt is not the answer at quarterback. Travis Henry and Shawn Bryson are capable running backs but won't be able to keep the pressure off Bledsoe. Tight end Dave Moore looks to replace Jay Riemersma but that isn't an upgrade. Wide Receivers Eric Moulds and Peerless Price look to enjoy the improvement at quarterback and both should achieve 1000 yards receiving. Moulds should be especially good this season in a newly designed offense that takes advantage of his strength downfield. Rookie Josh Reed will probably need some time to develop but should produce a few highlights. The offensive line wasn't great last year and won't be great this year. However, they shouldn't be an embarrassment either. Where the Bills are really worrisome is their defense. Greg Williams installed the 46 defense, best known for propelling the Bears to their lone Super Bowl victory. The dark secret of that defense is that it is a gamble that requires tremendous talent. If you have it you can absolutely crush offenses. The Bears were able to handle the great 49ers offense in their prime. However, the 85 Dolphins gave the Bears their one loss when Marino lit them up for 38 points. Like all gambles the 46 can backfire if the offense has the speed and talent to find the weak spots and exploit them. Offenses should be able to do that to the Bills. The defensive line is fairly nameless but is only slightly below average. Linebacker London Fletcher should look good in the scheme but he isn't surrounded with modern day Richard Dent's. Cornerbacks Antione Winfield and Nate Clements are fairly talented but they will need to handle one-on-one coverage when the Bills are sending the kitchen sink after the quarterback. Rookie Coy wire actually looks to be a perfect fit as strong safety in the defense. Free safety Travares Tillman is more of a question mark. I foresee good things for the Bills in the future when they finally accumulate the personnel to make their schemes work. This year will be better than the last but that doesn't equate to a winning record.
The Pittsburgh Steelers could almost taste it. They were expected to go faced the Rams in the Super Bowl everyone wanted to see. The #1 offense vs. the #1 defense. Two of the most devious minds in football. Watch the trick plays fly. Didn't happen. New England found their inner champion and the Steelers had a lot to think about in the offseason. All the pressure resides on the shoulders of Kordell Stewart. You know the defense will be championship caliber. The AFC is Pittsburgh's to lose. Last year they lost it. This year? Read on. The Browns took a huge step forward last year but while the defense should remain tough the offense looks less than frightening. The Ravens are still overcoming the ravages of the cap and Brian Billick's ego. Trent Dilfer led them to the promised land and they discarded him like a candy wrapper. The football Gods punish such hubris. The Bengals? Well, let me put it this way. They have been known to fly in prospective free agents coach class. They will be bad for a long, long time. Not unlike the Clippers or the Brewers. When ownership is more interested in pinching pennies than in winning it will show over time. It's too bad. It isn't as if Cincinnati has that much else going for it.
Pittsburgh Steelers- Backups Tommie Maddux and Tee Martin are not going to lead the Steelers to the promised land. Kordell Stewart is pretty scary when he doesn't pretend he's a great pocket passer. When he gets out of the pocket and is a threat to run opposing coaches reach for the Maalox. When he tries to beat opposing teams with just his arm Bill Cowher needs Tums. Stewart's life is easier because of how good their running game is. Jerome Bettis (The Bus) needs to show he is fully recovered from his groin injury. His understudies Chris Fuamatu-Ma'fala and Amos Zereoue showed just how important vowels are to a running game. They maintained the #1 rushing attack in football and between those 3 they look to keep the #1 spot again. Tight ends Mark Bruener and Jerame Tuman are both above average and support both the running and passing game effectively. Wide Receiver Hines Ward is recovering from surgery but he should be fine when the games matter most. Plaxico Burress finally lived up to his potential and looks to be even better this season than last. Troy Edwards looked to be the #3 wide receiving option but Antwaan Randle El has been blowing the doors off this preseason in practice. He's a converted quarterback so look for him to produce some funny business this season. Alan Faneca leads one of the best offensive lines in football. There probably isn't a better run blocking line in football and they are fun to watch, especially late in the game when the defense is tiring and the running backs look like hammers. On defense the entire Pittsburgh front 7 is solid. The highlights are linebackers Jason Gildon, James Farrior (ex-Jet), and Kendrell Bell. The Steelers lead the league in sacks last year and look to repeat. Cornerback Chad Scott needs to play within himself more as he gambled too aggressively at times last year. DeWayne Washington is less aggressive but a bit more effective. Safeties Lee Flowers and Brent Alexander are good enough, partly because the front 7 is so good. Special teams killed the Steelers last year. They clearly should be better given how much they have focused on this area in the offseason. This could be the year for the men of Steel.
Cleveland Browns- Tim Couch hasn't shown me much. Maybe that is because his wide receiving corps has been substandard, but wide receiver Kevin Johnson is a good #2 receiver in the #1 receiver role this season and Quincy Morgan is a #3 receiver playing #2. Rookies Andre Davis should help eventually but he isn't the rookie this offense is going to depend on. Rookie running back William Green is going to improve the offense but a poor offensive line is going to hold him back. While the offense is going to struggle, the defense is top notch. Defensive end Courtney Brown was a monster when healthy averaging better than a sack a game. Inside Gerrard Warren improved as the season went on and if he reaches his potential the Browns d-line will be a formidable first line of defense. Linebacker Jamir Miller is the purest pass rushing linebacker in football. He is poor vs. the run though. Dwayne Rudd was great for the Vikings and maintained that level with the Browns. More of a tackler than a hitter he's a great player to watch if you want to learn good technique. The secondary is the weak link on this defense, but it is also pretty weird. Rookie nickel cornerback Anthony Henry lead the league in interceptions with 10, as many as he had in college. The entire defense is infused with attitude, as head coach Butch Davis has installed a Miami Hurricane style on this team. Maybe a bit dirty, maybe a bit mean, but certainly more than a bit effective. If their offense wasn't so pedestrian the Browns would be fun to watch.
Baltimore Ravens- Quarterback Chris Redman? He has a pretty good arm and the brain to play quarterback but he runs like Dan Marino. They used to clock Dan Marino's running times with a sundial so you get the picture. Jeff Black is a capable backup who wants to start. Look for tension in camp Billick, which is what Billick deserves. The running game comes down to Jamal Lewis returning to his pre-injury level. If he doesn't the running game looks to be God awful which will put too much pressure on the passing game that will be God awful under such circumstances. Tight end Todd Heap is a good wide receiver but he also blocks like one. The wide receiving corps is led by underachiever Travis Taylor. Oy vey is meir. Jonathan Ogden leads an offensive line that still misses Leon Searcy. Really this team was decimated by the cap as the list of players missing is embarrassing. Most of those losses were on the defense. Specifically defensive tackles Sam Adams, Lional Dalton, Larry Webster, Tony Siragusa, defensive end Rob Burnett, linebacker Jamie Sharper, cornerback Duane Starks, and safeties Corey Harries and Rob Woodson. That's no way to build a football team. However, while the Ravens are on the way down, they did win a Super Bowl for their effort so maybe it evens out. Marvin Lewis didn't want to preside over the defense's fall from grace and I can't blame him. Middle linebacker Ray Lewis is still one of the best players in football but we'll see just how much he misses the great defensive lineman who kept blockers off of him. Expect him to be a lot more pedestrian this season. Cornerback Chris McAlister is very good and that's about as far as we should go with the Ravens defensive backfield. The run is over. The rebuilding begins next year once they have some cap room. For now... suffer. :/
Cincinnati Bengals- Quarterback Gus Frerotte was loved by the fans in Washington. That is, until he won the starting job. He proved to be insufficient at that point. Jon Kitna and Akili Smith back him up but neither are all that inspiring at this point. However, the Bengals offense does have one bright spot. Corey Dillon might be the best running back in football. Marshall Faulk is a terror but what would he do in Cincinnati? No one knows and we'll never find out. Wide receiver Peter Warrick hasn't lived up to the hype that comes with being 4th pick in the draft. The offensive line isn't bad and gets an infusion of youth with rookie Levi Jones. The defense isn't that bad as the Bengals have put years of early picks into it. Defensive end Justin Smith leads a decent defensive line. Linebacker Takeo Smith is a Hall of Fame quality linebacker that can't even make it to the pro bowl because he plays in Cincinnati. He has help on the linebacking corps in the form of Brian Simmons who is a young phenom. The defensive backfield is young and questionable but should have time to grow given the lack of expectations this year. As bad teams go the Bengals aren't that bad to watch as Spikes and Dillon are both highlights waiting to happen. It's too bad this team is doomed by poor ownership.
No team in this division had a winning record last year. I don't understand why the expectations are so high for Indianapolis. Is Tony Dungy going to line up on defense? The Titans aren't that far removed from being the best team in football. They were better than the Ravens the year the Ravens won the Super Bowl but special teams killed them the same way special teams killed the Steelers. The Jaguars are like the Ravens except for the Super Bowl champion part. I think they have the talent to produce a better record but they are also light years from the team they used to be. The Texans are pretty good as expansion teams go, mostly because teams had to bribe them with good players in the expansion draft so that these teams could escape salary cap Hell. The Jets, Jaguars, and Ravens are the best examples of this. I also have to say I really like the Texans uniforms, especially the helmets.
Tennessee Titans- Air McNair? That is what we are going to have to see for the Titans return to glory. He had a very nice year last year with a 61.3% completion rate and averaged 7.77 yards per pass attempt. His backups are fairly poor so it behooves Steve McNair to play with some smarts and avoid putting himself in too many dangerous situations. He likes to run aggressively when the situation calls for it but he needs to learn discretion. There is no shame in sliding Billy Volek is the man holding the clipboard. Neil O'Donnell is the current backup but he has gotten old and looks like he might lose his job. Running back Eddie George is a huge question mark. If he can't do the job then Skip Hicks will need to step up. My instincts tell me Skip Hicks is going to have a monster year this year. All of the other defenses in this division are porous, especially against the run. The only thing that might keep Hicks down is a return to glory by George. I wish I could say I expected that to happen but I don't. Wide receivers Derrick Mason and Kevin Dyson are both above average. Frank Wycheck is a threat at tight end when healthy. The offensive line isn't very good so the rest of the offense will suffer a bit. Last year the defense fell apart when injuries decimated the secondary. On paper the Titans should have the scariest defensive line in football. Javon Kearse is a manimal and should lead the league in sacks every year. His competition for the sack title should be line mate Kevin Carter. Rookie Albert Haynesworth was a monster at Tennessee. It's tougher to dominate in the pros but he should still be very good. John Thornton is coming back from major shoulder surgery. If he comes back at 100% this line should keep offensive coordinators up even later at night than they usually are. Linebacker Kevin Bullock has grown up fast Randall Godfrey is another strong player who needs to recover from injuries. Peter Sirmon and Rocky Calmus are both average linebackers but even so the front 7 is very good IF healthy. Cornerbacks Samari Rolle is a shutdown corner when healthy. He wasn't last year so it is an open question whether or not to throw at him this season. Andre Dyson is undersized but if Rolle can take out the opposing team's #1 receiver Dyson will be fine. Rookie safety Tank Williams should be fun to watch. Lance Shulters is a good player who will have a lot of pressure placed on him by the defensive system. The 46 defense is great when it works, and this team has the talent to make it work WHEN HEALTHY. I can't stress that enough. If things go right for the Titans they'll rule the division and possibly more. Otherwise another losing record isn't out of the question. My instincts say this team returns to greatness, or, at least, very goodness. I mean, how can you not have faith in a football team whose coach has a mullet?
Indianapolis Colts- The Colts scored more than 25 points 8 times last season. They gave up more than 25 points 12 times last season, including 8 of the last 9 games. Ouch. Peyton Manning is the best quarterback in the AFC* (*unless he is playing in a playoff game. In that case he turns into Ryan Leaf.) The Colts season ends if Manning gets hurt, but he is very durable having not missed a start in his four years as a pro. Edgerrin James has been taking a lot of crap lately for being a selfish player. The main gripe is that he plays to his incentives whether or not that helps the team. One example is the time he ran for a touchdown instead of just taking a knee. I happen to side with James on this one. If you want a player to play purely to win give him a contract laden with team incentives like regular season wins, playoff wins, and of course, a Super Bowl win. You get what you pay for. In baseball the owners pay for power so we get steroid monsters. If basketball players were paid by the point we wouldn't see slow it down offenses no matter what the coaches wanted. Furthermore, it isn't unheard of for coaches to run the game in such a fashion such that a player doesn't reach certain incentives that ownership doesn't want to pay for. James is one of the best running backs in football, although there are questions as to how well he is going to recover from a season ending knee injury he suffered last year. Dominic Rhodes was more than adequate as a replacement last year so the Colts have to feel good about their running back unit. Tight end Marcus Pollard isn't much of a blocker but he is as good a receiving threat as you are going to find, with respects to Jeremy Shockey and Tony Gonzalez. Marvin Harrison might be the best wide receiver in the AFC. Qadry Ismail is a fine #2 receiver, although Reggie Wayne might beat him out for the job. The offensive line is pretty good, although Manning makes them look a bit better than they are. The real proof is the running game and the line did a good job of providing one. The defense is in shambles. Your guess is as good as mine on how many rookies will start. 2? 4? 5? Who knows. Defensive end Dwight Freeney is one for sure. A workout warrior, Freeney has the speed to make some offensive tackles look very, very bad. I have worries about Chad Bradzke as he hasn't been 100% healthy in years. Rookie Larry Triplett and Ellis Johnson will try and slow down opposing rushing attacks. The linebacker corps is in flux and it will take a superb coaching job by Dungy to make this unit effective. There are a lot of poster boys in the secondary, and that isn't a good thing. Poster boys are the guys you see in the backgrounds of other people's posters. The guy who got burned for the monster play. Cornerback Walt Harris is pretty good, but after that it gets sticky. Neither David Macklin or rookie Joseph Jefferson inspire much confidence. Like the Linebacker unit, the safety unit is also in flux and it will be interesting to see how well it can rebound from last year. Tony Dungy should get this team back into the win column but it will take time for him to build a championship caliber defense. That is, unless he has the luck of the Rams who turned a stinker of a defense into a strong unit almost overnight. I don't expect lightning to strike twice but at least there is a precedent.
Jacksonville Jaguars- Mark Brunell, Fred Taylor, and Jimmie Smith unite to form a triangle almost as good as the Manning-James-Harrison triangle in Indy. However, Brunell has taken a beating the last few years and things should get worse before they get better with the loss of Tony Boselli. Fred Taylor is a beast when healthy but his luck has been poor in that regard. Stacey Mack is a suitable replacement, but to offensive coordinators he is sleeping powder compared to Taylor's no-doze. After Smith the wide receiving corps gets slow fast. Tight end Kyle Brady is a pretty good receiver but you wouldn't know it lately as he has had to stay in as a blocker to help keep Brunell alive. It will take an industrial strength coaching job to get Jacksonville's offensive line up to average. The defense was bad enough to cost defensive coordinator his job Gary Moeller. It then proceeded to lose 6 starters. If you want a player to watch when the Jags are on defense go with Tony Brackens. He was the only defensive lineman to survive the carnage and he's very, very good. Maybe next year the Jags will return to "glory." It is one thing to sacrifice the future and get a ring for it. It is quite another to not even make it to a Super Bowl. Oops.
Houston Texans- Apart from perhaps the Cleveland Browns the Houston Texans are the only bad team with a good excuse. I think Joey Harrington will become a better pro quarterback than David Carr, but I also liked Leaf over Manning. Of course, so did about half the GM's in football, so I guess Leaf fooled a lot of people a lot of the time. Still, David Carr is a mature young man with a strong arm and a stronger work ethic. Kent Graham will keep the starting job warm until Carr is ready for it. Running back James Allen was pretty good for the Bears until Anthony Thomas came along and stole his job. Rookie wide receiver Jabar Gaffney should provide Carr with a decent target but it will take time before they become a feared combination. A lot of different players will play wide receiver for the Texans before the team gets a feel for who belongs in their system and who doesn't work out. Injuries have already hurt the Texans offensive line and that will stunt the development of their offense. The defensive backfield is very familiar to me as two ex-Jets start at cornerback: Aaron Glenn and Marcus Coleman. They better play well because they won't get much help from the front 7. Linebackers Kailee Wong and Jamie Sharper are pretty good but a weak defensive line will mean that they'll have blockers in their faces more often than not. It will be a long season for the Texans, but that is to be expected for an expansion team. Check back in 2005 if you want to see the Texans compete for something more than the #1 pick in the draft.
The AFC West:
Oakland Raiders- 9-7 Denver Broncos- 7-9 Kansas City Chiefs- 6-10 San Diego Chargers- 5-11
Not a strong division. Either old and infirm or young and a bit too green. The Raiders have missed their chance for a Super Bowl win. They hosted the AFC championship game after Baltimore upset Tennessee and were 6 point favorites over the Ravens. In fact, the Giants had already blown out the Vikings so the Raiders would have been 6 point favorites in the Super Bowl. The Ravens defense was too tough for the Raiders and the scene of that game was Tony Siragusa crushing Rich Gannon. The Broncos seem to be cursed in the post Elway era. We all know about Terrell Davis' troubles but Brian Griese hasn't been charmed either. The Chiefs have found that the Rams made the right choice in keeping Warner and tossing Trent Green. As for the Chargers, they will get better as Drew Brees grows into a quality NFL quarterback.
Oakland Raiders- Bill Callahan will look good if he can turn all the draft picks the Bucs are giving up into a future. Quarterback Rich Gannon is excellent but he is also 37. Now, I know I have faith in a 39 year old quarterback but I just need to point out that Gannon isn't as young or as spry as he used to be. Woe be the Raiders if Gannon gets hurt. The Raiders are a fantasy owner's nightmare when it comes to the rushing game. Five players getting rushing attempts, one player specializing in short yardage situations, including goal line situations, but getting no yardage elsewhere. Another being used primarily as a receiver. A third taking up most of the other duties. Those three were Zack Crockett, Charlie Garner, and Tyrone Wheatley respectively. Charlie Garner is undersized but he has the talent to restore the Raiders rushing attack to the top half of the league. The passing game has a 37 year old quarterback throwing to a 40 year old receiver and a 36 year old receiver. That's 48 years of NFL experience. These guys have seniority over a few officials. They're still pretty good though. Tight end Roland Williams was better in practice than in games but he'll get a chance at redemption this season. The offensive line wasn't very good last season but look for it to be better this year. The Raiders had a great draft, and it wasn't just due to the Bucs. Cornerback Phillip Buchanan was a steal and linebacker Napoleon Harris was the best at his position. The defensive line is sub par as Trace Armstrong will never return to the form he showed in 2000 when had 16.5 sacks in Miami. Even with Harris the linebacking corps isn't very good. This puts a lot of pressure on the defensive backfield. Even with nagging injuries cornerback Charles Woodson has been very good. If healthy there is no one better. Phillip Buchanan is going to be a great #2 corner while Tory James is going to be a top 5 nickel corner. The safety situation is questionable. Rod Woodson has officially gotten old. Anthony Dorsett has the skills but isn't very good at being in the right position at the right time or taking the right angle for a tackle. Derrick Gibson needs to develop in his sophomore season. Oh, a special teams note: Kicker Sebastian Janikowksi has been nothing short of awful this preseason. Just noting.
Denver Broncos- Was signing Shannon Sharpe a move of desperation? Brian Griese needs to return to his 2000 form. However, it isn't just up to him. The running game used to be rock solid but there are a number of reasons why it fell from grace. Terrell Davis got hurt, as did Olandis Gary. Offensive line coach Alex Gibbs retired. The officials finally got tired of all the dirty tactics practiced by the Broncos offensive line, including cut-blocking and leg-whipping. The Broncos look like they will put the running game in the hands of second round pick Clinton Portis. Given that the offensive line isn't what it used to be that isn't a recipe for success. The wide receiver corps got a boost with the first round selection of Ashley Lelie. Ed McCaffrey's injury in week 1 last season really hurt Griese and the Broncos will need him to come back healthy. Rod Smith is another great wide receiver and between Smith, McCaffrey, Lelie, and Sharpe the offense might still be explosive even with line woes. Also, if Clinton Portis was a strike of fortune the offense could go from good to stacked. However, generally good offenses have good offensive lines so we'll need to see if the Broncos O-line provides the holes and the protection a top flight offense needs. The defense is actually quite a bit better than most people give it credit for. Defensive lineman Chester McGlockton, Lional Dalton, and Trevor Pryce are all well above average. The question mark is second year player Paul Toviessi. He was hurt his rookie year but has been having a productive preseason. John Mobley leads a swift but undersized linebacking corps. The linebacking corps will look good if the defensive line sucks up the blockers. If not, the Broncos will be overpowered. The defensive backfield is a bit below average Cornerback Deltha O'Neal made a pro bowl trip behind his 9 interceptions but he also made at least that many big mistakes. Mike Shanahan was a genius a few years ago when he had a great offensive line, John Elway, and Terrell Davis. He's returned to Earth now so he same work to do.
Kansas City Chiefs- The AFC Rams? Um, no. Quarterback Trent Green has a bad case of the stiffs. He was slow to get rid of the ball, and not as accurate as he was advertised to be. Priest Holmes was a find at running back. His running style meshed perfectly with the Chiefs spread offense. Instead of overpowering a defense, Holmes founds the cutback gaps and squeaked out yardage. The tight end position is either the strength of the offense or a weakness depending on whether Tony Gonzalez signs with the team. Eddie Kennison should have a good year at wide receiver. He seems to finally have matured and he has always had the physical skills. Johnnie Morton was a nice pickup from the Lions who should give the Chiefs a decent aerial attack (presuming Gonzalez shows up). With the pickup of Willie Roaf the Chiefs have an above average offensive line. Really, it all comes down to Green. He has a system he should be comfortable with and a solid base of talent around him. If he's a stiff it won't matter. If he can play, well, then the Chiefs could have the best offense in the division. The defensive line is rebuilt with the addition of rookies Ryan Sims and Eddie Freeman. Eric Hicks and Duane Clemons should be dangerous at end presuming the rookies can provide a push from the middle. The linebacking corps will miss Donnie Edwards. It wasn't that great with him and he was the best of them. The defensive backfield isn't good enough to overcome other defensive deficiencies. I don't think this division is very good right now so perhaps the Chiefs can rise up and win it. It will require Trent Green and the rookie defensive tackles to play at a high level. Otherwise they'll repeat last year's 6-10.
San Diego Chargers- There is simply no question that the Chargers have the best retro uniforms. Why don't they return to them? Quarterback Drew Brees is ready to lead the offense. Doug Flutie finally got old last season. Brees will have help in the form of running back LaDainian Tomlinson. Tomlinson exploded early last season before defenses decided to key on him. The receiving corps looks pretty good on paper: Tight end Stephen Alexander, wide receivers Curtis Conway, Tim Dwight, and rookie Reche Caldwell. That is actually a lot of playmaking ability. I have no idea if the offensive line will be good or not as it has been rebuilt. I like the additon of rookie Toniu Fonoti as he is a Nebraska product. The offensive line wasn't very good last year but it will have a few new starters so we'll just have to wait and see how well it meshes. Astonishingly the Chargers have allowed the fewest yards per rushing attempt 3 of the last 4 years. Actually, the team doesn't have a weak unit on defense. Defensive end Marcus Wiley earned a pro bowl trip last year with screws in his foot. He leads a pretty good defensive line. Junior Seau isn't the superman he used to be as this is his 14 year as a pro. He is a fearless leader with an underrated grasp for the nuances of the game. He does a good job of making those around him better and for that reason the linebacking corps is also above average. Rookie cornerback Quentin Jammer was a great pick at 5th in the draft. He'll pair with Ryan McNeil who makes do more with great smarts than with great speed. Jammer is more of an athlete who likes to play a physical brand of coverage with bumps off the line. He is also strong vs. the run. Strong safety Rodney Harrison might kill someone one day. He might be the best in football at just knocking the daylights out of a receiver stupid enough to go over the middle. Rogers Beckett rounds out a pretty strong defensive backfield. The truth is this is a championship caliber defense. Unless Drew Brees is a prodigy in the mold of a Marino or an Elway the defense will just have to wait another year.
The NFC Playoffs:
1. San Francisco 49ers- 14-2 2. Chicago Bears- 11-5 3. Washington Redskins- 11-5 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 10-6 5. St. Louis Rams- 13-3 6. Philadelphia Eagles- 11-5
NFC Wild Card Weekend:
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins:
Gatorball gets a home game as this division rivalry spills over to the post season. A fairly ugly game as both defenses are well keyed to the offensive tendencies of the other teams. Washington escapes a close game. Redskins 16, Eagles 13.
St. Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
For the second time this season St. Louis goes into Tampa Bay and wins. This is especially demoralizing for Tampa Bay as they are short on youth due to the Gruden deal and the defense is now a year older with another first round loss. Rams 31, Buccaneers 10.
The Divisional Playoffs:
Washington Redskins @ Chicago Bears:
Gatorball shows up in Chicago in January. Well, Champaign at least. Washington proves too much as Chicago's offense doesn't get it done against a Marvin Lewis D. Redskins 13, Bears 6.
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers:
Great game, one of the best of the postseason. The visiting Rams are slight favorites but it isn't to be. The 49ers wear the Rams defense down with a ball control offense and frustrate the Rams. A few turnovers contribute to the downfall and Mike Martz falls short 3 years in a row. 49ers 26, Rams 17.
The NFC Championship Game:
Best friends Steve Spurrier and Steve Mariucci face off in a grudge match. The Redskins embarrassed the 49ers in the pre-season, and the 49ers got revenge with a win in Candlestick. A high scoring slugfest as the Redskins finally break out of their offensive doldrums. The 49ers prove worthy though as Garcia and Owens hook up for a late game touchdown. The Redskins simply run out of time and the 49ers squeak out a victory and move on to Super Bowl XXXVII. 49ers 28, Redskins 27.
The AFC Playoffs:
1. Pittsburgh Steelers- 14-2
2. New England Patriots- 11-5
3. Tennessee Titans- 10-6
4. Oakland Raiders- 9-7
5. Miami Dolphins- 10-6
6. Indianapolis Colts- 9-7
AFC Wild Card Weekend:
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans:
A divisional rivalry. The fans are torn. They want to see Peyton get a playoff win, but not against the Titans. The Colts take an early lead but the defense doesn't even pretend it can hold it. Tennessee pulls away behind Skip Hicks' 150+ rushing yards. Titans 36, Colts 20.
Miami Dolphins @ Oakland Raiders:
A matchup fit for the 70's. Ricky Williams leads the fish into the Black Hole. Rarely a fun trip and this year is no different. The Raiders bottle time for another week. An ugly low scoring game. Raiders 12, Dolphins 3.
The AFC Divisional Playoffs:
Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers:
The Raiders are never in this game as the Steelers dominate on both sides of the ball. Gannon, Rice, and Brown get old in a hurry as all three take a beating, especially Gannon. The Steelers play keep away with the ball with a power running game. Kordell keeps things under control while giving the defense fits. Woodson and Buchanan keep Ward and Burress under wraps but Kordell and Randle El are never where the defense expects them to be. A beating. Steelers 38, Raiders 10.
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots:
Belichick throws the kitchen sink at McNair; Blitzes, 8 men in coverage, stunts, man, zone, shifts. Skip Hicks keeps the Titans close. Brady is under pressure and this game gives the punters a lot of work. Eventually history repeats as Troy Brown breaks a punt return and that's the difference. Patriots 13, Titans 9.
The AFC Championship Game:
New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers:
Haven't we seen this before? This time the Steelers are ready. Conservative offenses vs. imaginative defenses. Troy Brown and company provide some sparks but the Steelers simply borrow a gameplan that could have worked at Oklahoma or Nebraska. Run the ball until they stop you, and mix in a few passes when the defense puts 8 men in the box. Not a pretty game but eventually the Steelers simply wear the Patriots down and Brady is the one forced into late mistakes as the Steelers pull away late in a game that was close for 55 minutes. Steelers 27, Patriots 14.
This gives us a marquee Super Bowl: The team of the 70's vs. the team of the 80's. 9 Lombardi trophies and a combined record of 9-1 in Super Bowls between them. The Steelers have questions about Kordell's ability to provide enough offense to match the 49ers. The 49ers have to answer questions about how they plan to attack Pittsburgh's league leading defense. Thankfully there is only between the championship games and the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl XXXVII @ San Diego:
Forget the conservatism the Steelers showed last week. This week anything goes. Tee Martin, Randle El, and Kordell Stewart all take snaps at QB, sometimes with all 3 being on the field as receivers. Slash factor. The 49ers defense is outmatched and outthought. Terrell Owens is a bright spot as he has a game for the ages and is the 49ers MVP with 160+ receiving yards and a touchdown. Garrison Hearst is shut down as are the rest of the 49ers weapons as the Steelers refuse to double Owens and focus on the other receivers and the running game. Kordell finally escapes from his shell and overcomes a few bad plays. Stewart earns MVP honors, with Owens also receiving votes. The Steelers simply overpower a 49ers team that just wasn't ready to take the final step. Steelers 34, 49ers 16.
There are obviously a lot of other ways this season can play out. The Rams are still the Super Bowl favorite, but I don't think Martz will win a championship as head coach. I also don't the Rams will be as good this year as they were last year. I also think the Jets might be the second best team in the AFC, but that might be pure bias. I do think this is the Steelers year though. Maybe Kordell will explode, but if the special teams are even average the Steelers are the best team in football. The Rams get the hype but their defense isn't nearly as good and their offense rarely dominates top defenses. I think there are 3 tier 1 football teams: The Rams and 49ers in the NFC, and the Steelers in the AFC. Other teams can still be Super Bowl contenders, but they need more things to go right than these 3. Of course this might all be hogwash and we'll be watching the Chargers take on the Cowboys. That's the great thing about football. Have fun everybody and watch football responsibly. Go JETS!
Some last minute adjusting entires:
The Jets are going to be a machine. The Big Green Machine looks like it has the offensive weapons and defensive talent to go 12-4 this season. Perhaps this is the season that the Herm will turn. It wouldn't surprise me if the Jets are the #2 seed in the AFC and play at Pittsburgh for the right to go to San Diego.
Kordell might be a concussion watch player just like Troy Aikman was late in his career. If so Pittsburgh is in trouble.
The Redskins have instilled a feeling of confidence this preseason, while the Rams have looked blatantly awful. Does this mean anything? Vince Lombardi won a lot of preseason games, but maybe the Rams are simply saving themselves and the Redskins are winning games no one cares about. There is no set rule on how much the preseason matters but as you can see above I have faith that both teams will be ready for the season.
Alright kiddies, drive home safely, and remember to root for the men in green. J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, JETS!
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