Kai Budde
5/11/2004
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Any mulligans?

Finding the correct answer to that question might be the most difficult decision you have to make when you sit down at a table with your opponent. Before the Paris mulligan was introduced to Magic, the whole thing was pretty easy. You either had all lands or no lands and that gave you the opportunity to take your chances with a new hand or you were forced to stay with what you had - even if it was just one land and a hand full of five mana cards.

Fortunately, that has changed. The new mulligan system obviously has issues as well as it is hardly fair to start a game with fewer cards than your opponent, but there doesn't really seem a better way to deal with the whole thing. But it also adds a very positive side to the game. The question of whether to keep or shuffle your opening hand back into your deck is probably one of the most difficult and important decision you make in an entire game. Sure, there are sometimes very complex board situations, but how many times have you asked friends 'What’s the right play in the situation XYZ?' and how many times have you asked 'Do you think a hand of XYZ is a keeper?'. I know that I ask the second question way more often and the answers are usually very controversial as players have a very different approach to this topic.

I for one am not a huge fan of going down to six cards and I don't mean that as in 'I prefer to always draw good hands'. My approach to the game is a bit based on chess. I am fairly sure that no one else on PT level has said 'I am going to draw first' as often as I have and that isn't just Sealed Deck. I do that a lot in draft and even constructed matches. Drawing the extra card is something that I value more then most people, also because it gives me some sort of mulligan protection as you can keep way more hands if you get to draw an 8th card during your first turn. But I am fairly sure that I am a bit too scared and don't mulligan enough.

The question I usually ask myself is 'How can a card less give me a better hand?'. The worst case scenario is obviously that you get an almost identical hand with just one card less. I've kept a lot of questionable one land hands while my opponent was playing first and I usually stay with land heavy hands as well. Scott Wills asked me several weeks ago while writing an article for his column on magicthegathering.com if I'd Paris a hand of three Plains, two Mountains, Soldier Replica and Pyrite Spellbomb. He was actually pretty surprised when I answered that I'd never mulligan that, no matter what. If the hand was six lands and the Replica while going second, I'd shuffle it back. But I frequently keep six lands and a mediocre spell/creature on the play. It obviously depends what the one card is, since you do need something at least make sure you don't lose on your opponents fifth turn. The reason for my very 'conservative' approach to mulligans is that I am quite scared to Paris into a hand far worse then the one I mulliganed away.

Patrick Mello is a good example for the contrary. He mulligans very aggressively and believes that you can't keep bad hands. I've had quite a few discussion on hands with him and he's been disgusted with opening draws I kept quite often. The logic behind his approach is that if your opponent doesn't mulligan, he has a good hand and you won't be able to beat that with garbage. Patrick would send a hand of six lands and one spell back in a heartbeat. The difference between us is that he thinks that you can't win with bad or even average cards only and that as a result of this you need to take mulligans to make sure that you can actually compete.

I believe that a mulligan weakens your resources a lot and a mulligan doesn't exactly guarantee you that your new hand is any better. If you have those good cards in your deck, why can't you go with a mediocre hand? Even bad cards usually hold your opponent back somewhat and give you the opportunity to just draw into your good stuff.

I am fairly sure that both our opinions are valid and that somewhat in between is the right thing to do. There are several things you have to keep in mind when thinking whether you should 'go to Paris' with a borderline handor not:

1. Do I like my chances to win the game with this hand?
2. If I know the matchup: Is this hand any good against the particular deck I am facing?
3. Am I in a position that I need to take any risks if I want to walk away from the table as the winner?
4. What do I have to draw if I don't mulligan?
5. How good are my chances to get a good hand if I mulligan?

Question 1 is especially important in constructed as it mainly targets either land light or land heavy hands. It's quite important to be able to judge if it's worth the risk to keep a questionable hand. Two lands going first or one land going second should almost always result in a mulligan if the cards aren't exceptionally good or at least have a very low overall mana cost so that you can actually stay in the game if you don't immediately draw several lands. A land heavy hand on the other hand should be Paris’d if your deck has a very low curve overall and doesn't need that many lands or if you know that your opponent has a very fast deck and you won't be able to keep up with a normal draw on his part.

If mana flood or screw isn't the problem, the next thing that might give you fits is the matchup in case you know it going into the first game or if the game takes place after sideboarding. Some hands are fine on paper but are just unplayable in certain matchups. The White/Blue mage won't beat a goblin deck with four lands, Stifle, Mindslaver and Decree of Justice, while the Goblin deck should better try for a new hand when playing against White if its opening hand has two Electrostatic Bolts, a Sparksmith, a Sharpshooter and some lands.

Those two questions things are pretty basic. The third question is a bit more complicated. In this scenario, you have to look beyond just your hand and evaluate things like the matchup and the game count. If you are up a game and facing a positive matchup, I wouldn't take any risks. Your chance to mulligan into an average draw that can win a favorable matchup is certainly better then taking the risk to just not draw the land and sit there while your otherwise easily defeatable opponent runs over you. But if you are facing a bad matchup and are already down a game and have a good draw that is just missing one land, I almost always keep it as you are in a bad position anyway. A mulligan will most likely result in a loss (remember that your matchup is bad) if your six card hand isn't exceptionally good. But if you do happen to be lucky enough to draw the missing lands, you are most likely in a winning position. This obviously doesn't mean that you should keep one land draws on the play. If your deck runs an average amount of lands, you have a pretty low chance that your first draw phase gives you what you need and the expected chance to win with such a draw isn't quite high enough. But the issue comes up often enough going first with two lands and an expensive hand/deck or going second with just one land.

Question four is mostly related to Constructed formats, but sometimes it comes up in Limited as well. If you have, for example, a hand with four lands, two equipments and another spell. In this case you need to know how many creatures your deck runs but that is pretty obvoius. A bit more difficult is for example a hand of five lands, Skullclamp and Siege-Gang Commander. The hand doesn't look exciting, but it definitely is a keeper. If you are drawing first, your first two draw steps are quite important but almost every non-land card in your deck helps. If you play a pretty standard Goblin-version, your deck has eight one mana creatures, four Piledriver, a number of Sparksmiths and Electrostatic Bolts or/and Shatters and Goblin Incinerators in case you are facing the mirror. Goblin Warchief doesn't speed you up that much but is certainly a great improvement for the hand as well. That means that you have two draws for one of 18 cards, assuming two Sparksmiths and no Incinerators, that can turn this draw into a good one. As your deck has 53 cards left, that is slightly over every third card in your deck. Being on the play means that you have a tempo advantage over your opponent anyway and that makes the hand slightly better as well. The one casting cost goblins are good draws even on turn 2 as you played the clamp on your first turn and can sacrifice them right away.

I believe that hands like this are mulliganed away way too often because a lot of players don't realize how the draw step affects their hand and how they should let that influence their mulligan decision. Sure, the hand is far from optimal and you might just draw land, Skullclamp, Siege-Gang and when you cast your first spell, you are on five life and your opponent has an Arcbound Ravager and two Myr Enforcers in play. But a mulligan doesn't really mean that you have to win the game either and I like the chances to draw one of 18 one or two mana cards and then one of several more three mana cards by turn two or turn three a lot better then going down to six unknown cards.

The fifth problem depends a lot on your deck. If you play one of the turbo affinity decks with Tooth and lots of 0 mana stuff like Ornithopter and Welding Jar and a very low land count and you get a hand like three lands, Frogmite, Arcbound Worker, Ornithopter, Ornithoper - What do you do? That hand is clearly unexciting. Skullclamp, Ravager and Disciple are all on vacation and the Thopters look like pretty dead cards right now. But can youm ulligan this? A deck with a lot of cards that have affect the game in combination with others doesn't really like to go to six cards, especially as your land count is probably not all that high. With that deck design you should bite the bullet and keep it while a Goblin deck with a draw of four lands, 2 Goblin Sledders and a Patriachs Bidding easily goes all the way to France, as it is a lot more consistent and doesn't have to be afraid to mulligan into a even less playable hand

If you keep all of this in mind, I hope that you will be happier (and more successful) with your mulligan decisions in the future. If you happened to like this article and would like to see more like this in the future, I'dlike to hear topic suggestions in the message board thread on the bottom of this page. It's always quite difficult to come up with interesting stuff and if someone has something in mind, I'd very much appreciate the input.

- Kai