Andre Coimbra
4/2/2007
this article! - or -

After the great feedback I got from my last article, I felt that I should put in a little extra effort to make this one even better. I also wanted it to be original, so I spent some time thinking about what would be an useful topic for the readers. Sure, I could play some tournments with some Standard deck, ask the deck designer some questions and post a new one, but then... it wouldn't be original. So, I kept thinking eventually and found that there was something missing from the Magic articles on the web: there is no article explaining how the Pro Tour system really works, or at least, there wasn't until now!

So I decided to write about the math behind the Pro Tour system, how to take advantadge of it, optimizing your chances of earning a profit playing Magic, while traveling around the world and making new friends. Keep in mind that this is not a casual article, the main target for this article are competitive players that are looking for a guide to understanding the math behind making it into the Pro Tour club. You may not be at the point (yet) where you can take advantage of this article, but I hope it will help you at some point in your Magic life. At the end of the article I have a special suprise for my readers, but don't skip anything!

I think that a top-down aproach in the Pro Tour game is the better way to analyze it, as you get a view of the goals you are playing for, before you see if it is worth trying for. So I will start with the Pro Tour Club and end with the PTQs. I'm mainly working with numbers, because they are really important to guide you, plus I try to make the math I'm using as easy as possible so that everyone can understand.

Pro Players Club

The Pro Tour Club is the base of the Pro Tour system, and to beat the Pro Tour system you need to understand how the Pro Tour Club works, as well as how to get the most from it. The Pro Tour Club is based on the Pro Tour Points and the more points you get, the higher you get on the Club.

"Thanks to the Players Club, there's an appearance fee there to cushion the blow (and pay the bills). On top of everything else, I think this system is pretty cool – having levels to quest after is fun no matter what game you're playing." -Randy Buehler

Let's take a look at the current threasholds for each level:

Level 3: 20 points
Level 4: 30 points
Level 5: 40 points
Level 6: 50 points

The purpose of this article is helping you to reach level 3 or higher, so I won't talk about the first two levels in order to make the article more to the point.

I mentioned that Pro Tour Points are the base of the Club, but do you know how much are they worth? Have you ever seriously thought about their value? It's really important to plan your aproach to the Pro Tour game, and can give you the edge over the competition.

To understand how much the Pro Tour points are worth, it's important to know what you can get from them, so let's first take a look at the benefits of each level in order to work out the numbers from there. I will give values to everything that matters, and even if it looks like I am overanalyzing, these values are important.

How much do players get in the Pro Tour club?
-Every player gets 3 Byes at GPs, worth around $50/GP*.
-Each Level has a Pro Tour participation Fee that is (Level-2)*500
-At Level 5 and 6, players get flights* worth $1000 to each Pro Tour, and Level 4 gets 1 per season.

-At Level 5 and 6, players get paid a $250/$500 fee at each Grand Prix.

-At Level 6, players get $200 in hotels* at each Pro Tour.

*All the values I used here that are not fixed rates, but are based on my experience traveling and playing tournments, so they are not exact, but they help calculating the value of the Pro Tour points.

The next step is to understand how much each level is expected to gain in value from one year of Magic!

Level 3: (Pro Tour Fee)*NPro Tours + (3Byes)*Each GP $2900
Level 4: (Pro Tour Fee)*NPro Tours + (3Byes)*Each GP + 1 FLIGHT $6400
Level 5: (Pro Tour Fee + flight)*NPro Tours + (3Byes + Gp Fee)*Each GP $18500
Level 6: (Pro Tour Fee + Flight + Room)*NPro Tours + (3Byes + Gp Fee)*Each GP $27000

(I'm considering level 3-4 players playing around 8 Gps/season, and level 5-6 averaging 20)

Let's take a look at the Money/Pro Tour Point rate, to see what is the value of each Pro Tour point.

Level 3: $2900/20 = $145/PTP
Level 4: $6400/30 = $213/PTP
Level 5: $18500/40 = $463/PTP
Level 6: $27000/50 = $540/PTP

Now we have a good idea of how much each Pro Tour point is worth at some level, which will be crucial to understanding the rest of the article. Also, you can notice that the more points you get, the higher each individual point is rated, which can be a good reason to try to get as many points as possible.

Pro Tour

"Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.” - Soren Kierkegaard

In this article I will only consider individual events to make the math easier to compute. A good question to ask yourself at this point is, “How much is each Pro Tour point worth overall?” and the answer is that it depends on what you are going to do at the remaining events of the season, or how many points you have until the PT. I honestly think that most players miss the big picture and only think about how many points they have at that point, usually ending in end of year frustration, because they only start thinking about the points in the middle of the season or at the end of it, and miss a leveling up by just a couple of points (I'm not talking about anyone in particular, it's just the feeling I get about what I see and what I hear).

Is it worth playing a Pro Tour?

Before trying to understand the expected return of a PT, it's important to use the information we have correctly. I'm considering the hotel, flight and fee as the return of the Pro Tour points you get during the year, so, unless you won hotel/flight in a PTQ, it's important to include the money you spend here on the Pro Tour expenses.

It's quite hard to estimate how much you can expect to get from a Pro Tour, because it depends on your skill and preparation, so I will use the “average” and then give some examples of my personal statistics.

How many players play in the PT?

There were 386 players at PT Geneva 2006, so I will use 400 as the number of players in a Pro Tour for the math.

How many Pro Tour points are given at a PT?
With 400 players, there are about 1300 Pro Tour points at each Pro Tour, so the average player should expect 1300/400 points or 3.25.

How much money is given at a PT?
Around $240,000, so the average player is expected to get around $600.

If the average player that plays a PT is expecting to reach level 3 at the end of the season he can expect to get 3.25*$145+$600 at each PT, so, something like $1071,25. Which is an interesting number, because it pays for the flight overall.

What conclusion can we make from this?
If you are the average player that wins a PTQ and goes to the PT, you should expect to earn a profit playing the PT in the long run, while, if you got qualified via GP, PT, or ranking, and if you are probably better than the average player then you are expected to make a profit too, as you expect to get more from each PT than the average player, which should get around $1000. So the answer to my question is: play in every PT you are qualified for, as long as you can afford the investiment!

Personal experience

I have played 7 Pro Tours so far, only got money (outside fees) in 3 of them, getting a total of $13,520 and 34 Points, which, consdering that I got Level 4, are worth $213 each, getting $7242 from points, resulting in a total of $20,762, or something like $3000/PT. Those numbers put me above the average player and make each PT quite profitable for me on average.

Grand Prix

These are the tournments where the best players play against the average PTQ player, and while the first group seeks Pro Tour Points and sees each of those tournment as an investiment, the second group seeks fame, money and the slot to the next PT.

In contrast with the Pro Tour, it's really hard to work on average numbers here, because these are the most unfair tournments you will ever play, as some people usually have to play nine rounds on the first day, while others start playing at the 4th round with perfect tie breaks. Instead of trying to see if GPs are profitable for the average player, I will skip that and analyze my numbers in a similar way as the previous topic, giving you an idea of how you can analyze your own numbers and get some conclusions. Also, here I feel the need to split the GPs into two different tournments, the constructed ones and the limited ones, as my expected value in the first ones are much much higher than the second ones.

I've played 12 GPs to date, but will only use my last 5 limited ones, because that's my turning point from an ok player to a good player in my opinion, and the numbers I get are higher than the reality, considering that I'm only using a sample of five events with 800-1200 players, but I think is the best way to get it done. As for constructed, I only played three events, so I will use them all.

Limited GPs

I earned $4050 in prize money, as well as 16 points, which again, considering I got Level 4 are rated $3408, for a total of $7458. I spent around $800/GP on average, which gives me a $3458 profit, or $691/GP. This means that I can play the limited Gps if I feel confortable with the format, unless I spend more than $1400 for the GP, being the breaking point, or at times still profit, if I'm able to level up.

Constructed GPs

I got $850 from the constructed GPs, plus 3 points ($640), for a total of around $1500. All my constructed Gps are overseas, so I lost money playing those GPs for sure, I paid an average of $800 each, so, I lost a total of $900 in the process playing the GPs. However, I keep playing them and I can make a profit on the process...how is that possible? I'm a good player, but I'm a much better dealer, so at those GPs, you can usually find me trading cards during the bye period, as well as after I drop, giving me enough profit to cover my constructed skills.

What can you learn from here?

It's important to play in the GPs where you can maximize your money. Example: if I can choose between a limited GP and a constructed GP, I will choose the limited for sure. It is also important to consider other factors outside the tournment money and points, because if you can get some money dealing cards or the tourism is worth it for you and you can afford it, you can play more GPs than you could otherwise. Keep in mind that the reason why trading at GPs can be profitable is because of the difference of rates between countries and not because you are robbing someone in a trade.

"With the recent changes to the Invitation Policy these events have only become more valuable. Just making Day Two is worth one point and you only need to look at last year's race between Kenji, Olivier Ruel, and Masashi Oiso to understand how valuable that point can be. A single point was the difference between Kenji taking the crown and having the first-ever tie in the history of the game – a tie that would have been broken in a one-on-one showdown between Kenji and Olivier at Pro Tour–Honolulu." - Brian David-Marshall

GPs are quite important in the Pro Tour game, as you can get extra points there, which will increase the value of each Pro Tour point you have, or a slot to a Pro Tour that opens a new door for yourself into the Pro Tour club world.

Before finishing the GPs session of my article, I think that is important to say that when people start playing tournments, everyone starts with a 1600 ranking, 0 tournments and 0 GPs, so you don't really have stats about your tournments and it's impossible to calculate your expected value of those events. My point here is that sometimes you need to trust yourself and play some ‘cheap' GPs, until you can find your own limits and start having an idea of what is profitable to play. Also, a good player is expected to keep learning and improving his/her game, which may make the past numbers unreliable, as well as analyzing a hard task.

Pro Tour Qualifiers

As I refered to before, PTQs are the bottom of the Pro Tour System, but they are no less important, as this is the main door to the Pro Tour, even if I think that it's easier to consistently top 16 at a GP than winning a PTQ, but that's probably because I never won one and have some GP top 16s. Some Pro Tour champions, like Canali or Merkel, won their first Pro Tour after winning their slot at a Pro Tour Qualifier. Also for some countries flying to the rest of the world is so expensive that the only way to afford the flight for PTs is to win a free one. A good example of this is Brazil, which has some of the best players on the Pro Tour circuit, like Willy Edel or Paulo Victor.



In most of the countries, the PTQ winners get their flight paid and in some the hotel too, but it is not like that everywhere. In some countries, the winners get some money to play the PT, while in other they get just boosters. In Portugal, which is a country that has a good amount of success in the Pro Tour scene, having level 3+ players as well as 4 slots for each PTQ (which is quite good for a 10M country), we NEVER get the flight paid for the team PTQ. Devir (the company that sells Magic here), pays the flights to every other Pro Tour and Hotel for Worlds, but for some reason they cut their expenses on the teams one, leaving Portugal with no teams for the Pro Tour, apart from the ones that can afford the flight.

The main question regarding PTQs: is it worth it to play one outside your local area?

That really depends on how good you are and what your realistic chances are to actually win the flight and the slot. After the examples I gave in the previous sections of this article, you should be able to calculate if the PTQ's outside your zone are profitable to play, just don't forget to include the value of the slot in your math, which should be around $500/PT. The choice between attending a GP or some PTQs can be tricky, but then again, if you have played both kind of tournments before you should compare your expected value in both and see what's better for you.

If you want to beat the PTQs, I think that having a team of 5-8 players is the best way as you can playtest inside your group and probably travel by car to some PTQs outside your town for a cheaper rate.

Conclusion

I tried to give to the readers an overview on the money involved in the Pro Tour game, as well as some tips to maximize their invested money. Keep in mind that you need to play quite tight with your bankroll, because going broke is something you can't afford as you won't be able to keep playing tournments. I missed the Nationals in this article, because the article was getting too long, however you should play them if you are qualified as those are like big PTQs that grant slot, but give a better prize/player rate. You can do the math yourself.

SURPRISE

Ah, I said something about a special surprise... I gave you my opinions and aproach on the Pro Tour game, but, wouldn't it be cool to have one of the best three players ever giving their opinion too? (When I say the best, I'm talking about Kenji Tsumura, Kai Budde and Jon Finkel.) Well, that would be nice for sure, but not good enough for my readers, I want you guys to get the best from my articles, so I got the three of them to answer some questions related to this article and they kindly accepted. I guess that I may have a chance to get BDM's Friday column if at some point he retires :P


What is your opinion about the Pro Tour Club System?

Kenji Tsumura: I think that WotC treats level 5 and 6 players very well. However, I hope they increase the benefits of level 3 and 4 players.

Kai Budde: I don't like it very much! The Masters series was cool, but the extra tourney was probably too much work both for players and organizers. The end of year payout was also very nice and generally the player club system would be better than the end of year payout. However, at least when they introduced it, there wasn't as much money in the club levels as there was paid at the end of the year.

Jon Finkel: I think it's a pretty good system overall. It's designed to create an incentive for the most successful players to attend as many events as possible, and it should do so. Wizards has clearly learned a lot in the years they've been running the Pro Tour.

How important do you think that GPs are?

Kenji Tsumura: With the points increase last year, GPs got even more important. Levy got 16 points in just two GPs, but I would like to ask everyone to think about the edge that attending every GP gives in the POY race.

Kai Budde: Very important. European GPs generally have about 1000-1500 players and in the end, those players are the ones who carry the whole PT system. The guys playing in the actual PTs are a very, very minor [perecentage] of the Magic players. Those tourneys with their huge attendance shows that there's a lot of people that like to play Magic on a competitive level.

Jon Finkel: Important is an interesting word. I think they succeed in their purpose, which is to give players who have not qualified for the Pro Tour a taste of the Pro Tour experience. Are they important? I'm not really sure how to answer this. They are certainly less important than PTs, and I'd be surprised if many people had positive expectancy, even with the Pro Tour club system, in going to GPs on other continents. Gone are the days of going to Grand Prixs and having the majority of the players not know what they're doing, where you might realistically have a 50%+ chance of making the Top 8. The average level of Magic play around the world has risen too far for that. Now the GPs as a fun, subsidized trip with friends somewhere interesting... that's a model that works. Is it important? I guess I really don't know.

Whenever you play a tournment, what is your main goal there?

Kenji Tsumura: I think that it's important to be in the 2nd day and I keep that in mind to concentrate at every game. I've always been told by Tsuyoshi that we can't post good results when we think “How many wins do I need to make it?”, so I manage to not think like that.

Kai Budde: It used to be to win. Nowadays I'm only playing to have fun. But, when I used to put in a lot of practice into each tournament, my goal was to win, of course.

Jon Finkel: To win obviously. At least back in the day when I was going and was competitive. But even if I went now that would mostly be my goal. I'm too competitive of a person to have it otherwise, and losing is never fun.

Which individual format do you think is the more skill intensive?

Kenji Tsumura: That is a difficult question, but I think that it is draft. Nowadays constructed depends on luck more than ever.

Kai Budde: Well, block constructed has a far too small card pool, so I'd say Extended, because, there I think that you need to know a huge card pool and to know what cards your opponent might have, plus the variation even between decks of the same archetype varies a lot, as an example: not every counter deck runs Force Spike . Playing around and expecting the right cards is probably the most skill intensive thing there is.

Jon Finkel: Clearly limited is a much more skill testing format. It's really like night and day, and despite what people at Wizards might publicly say, they know it too. Constructed magic has a lot to do with tedium and practicing the same matchup/decks over and over again. When two people know what they're doing with their decks, there are almost no interesting decisions, and the few that come up probably have small differences in expectancy. Building decks can have some skill, but once a good deck is played somewhere, everyone knows about it. You can get into these situations where people either play the best deck or the deck to beat the best deck, and the PT/GP/PTQ matches are really just another few in set of 50 games the players have already played in this matchup. Some will argue that study and constant play and testing are a form of skill, and it might be true, but mostly it just tests who can take the most tedium, or whose friends can take the most.

Now we have a Pro Tour system where you have 2 constucted PTs, a Nationals and a Worlds, which are mostly constructed, and 1 team and 1 limited PT. Constructed Magic sells more cards, and we have to remember that the Pro Tour is first and foremost a marketing venture, and this has all slowly led to the demise of limited. It was a sad, sad day when Rochester draft was removed as a format, and the lack of limited Pro Tours is probably the single biggest reason a lot of the old players dont bother coming back.

If we could just have a World champs one year with 2 days of limited and a top 8 that was draft, that'd be something, but it'll never happen....

What advice would you give to the readers that want to reach the Level3+ status?

Kenji Tsumura: Try to enjoy the game, even if sometimes you may not do well, as that happens to everyone. Even when you lose, don't think negatively and if you do well, you should thank the people that supported you and helped you with getting the good scores. Please respect your opponent when you play Magic.

Kai Budde: You will need either one really good PT showing or to qualify for multiple PTs in a row. The one good showing works sometimes, but in the end, there's still a fairly big amount of luck involved in Magic. Qualifying for several PTs in a row virtualy puts you on the train.

Jon Finkel: I'm not a great one to ask, but I think the keys to being a good Magic player are to play with good people and realize you're always learning. Even when I was at the top of my game, I was always willing to take advice from and learn from "worse" players. Also, a lot of people talk about good plays and better plays. They're like, "Oh yeah, that would have been better but what I did was pretty good too". This is the way unsuccessful people think. There is the optimal best play, and everything else, which is a mistake. Until you think like that, your own growth as a gamer will be inhibited. Being self critical is the key to being successful... certainly in Magic, probably in everything.

Do you think that Magic was worth all the time you spend at it?

Kenji Tsumura: Magic is my life, but sometimes I regret not having done something else more.

Kai Budde: Yes, definitely. I enjoyed travelling a lot and not only I like the people I met but also, I'm still talking with a lot of them pretty much every day. I am a very competitive guy, I enjoy playing in tournaments etc etc. wouldn't change anything looking back.

Jon Finkel: Of course it was... Magic is one of the most enjoyable things I've done in my life, and I've met most of my best friends through it. It's one of the best things that ever happenned to me.

Play the game, See the world!
André Coimbra

PS: Don't forget to have fun playing Magic =)