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Financial Predictions for Magic 2013
Craig Wescoe
7/9/2012 11:02:00 AM Cards in a new set typically fluctuate wildly in the first three months following their release, as players find which cards are good and which are bad. Also the average card price in a set gradually declines until it rotates out of Standard. This is particularly true for Core Set cards since they either rotate out after a year or are reprinted in the next Core Set (which doubles supply). In either case, the price of nearly every card in the set continues to drop.  By studying price trends of previous sets and matching up individual card behaviors to expected analogs from a newly released set, one can make informed speculations on how future price trends will operate. While prices at 12 months are lower nearly across the board when compared to initial prices (for the reasons mentioned above), there is much profit to be gained in that first 3 month window, depending on the accuracy of one's card evaluations. My advice has been overall profitable since beginning this quarterly Financial Predictions article series. My last article covering Avacyn Restored was far and away my best one (in terms of accuracy of predictions). Within a single week the total card pool I recommended investing in nearly tripled in value! I consider this an abnormal occurrence. My advice was essentially to invest in all the miracle cards because they were currently being undervalued. The market quickly adjusted and that window to invest vanished, but not before my article was published and those investors quick at the helm turned a healthy and instantaneous profit. While I do not have a single golden piece of advice like last time, I do believe I have discovered various trends that have a strong likelihood of operating on the cards I will discuss in this article. As always, I cannot in any way guarantee these predictions will come true. Rather these are speculations informed by research and past investment experience. All prices used in this article refer to the lowest TCGplayer.com vendor price. Non-Reprint Mythics (Eight total)
Ajani, Caller of the Pride Current Price: $29.50 Price in 3 months: $12 Price in 12 months: $6 I'm a fan of this card, but it only fits into white-based aggro decks, and only the ones utilizing the exalted mechanic. It won't fit into white/x tokens decks or control decks. I'm thinking Ajani will go the way of Chandra, the Firebrand and Temporal Mastery, which is unfortunate for me because I am planning to acquire a play set for this weekend.
Liliana of the Dark Realms Current Price: $19.50 Price in 3 months: $21 Price in 12 months: $8 Liliana is a solid card that will fit into black/x control decks. I expect her to experience a slight bump in price once Ravnica Duals are spoiled since then she will enable multi-color black control decks. She is a solid walker that fits better into control than aggro and will likely retain her value, but she is not the star of the set in my estimation.
Sublime Archangel Current Price: $17.50 Price in 3 months: $18 Price in 12 months: $5 This one is another card I'm looking forward to playing with, in conjunction with Ajani. Unlike Ajani, she will likely find a home in multiple archetypes, especially post-rotation. For this reason I expect her to retain more of her value than Ajani. With time, I expect newer four-drops to be printed (as they always are for white) that will push her out of all but one archetype, at which point she will be a $5 mythic. I Foresee that time coming later rather than sooner in the year.
Thundermaw Hellkite Current Price: $16.75 Price in 3 months: $30 Price in 12 months: $10 This is what I predict will be the chase Mythic of the set. With Doom Blade and Go for the Throat rotating, the dragon will be harder than ever to kill. Its abilities are very relevant (haste and damage to flyers) and the card is very cost-efficient. It will certainly see play, and unlike the other non-reprint Mythics of the set, it will likely find a home in aggro, midrange, and control decks. It's more main-deck-able than Zealous Conscripts since it is good in nearly every matchup or board state, not just ones where the opponent has something worth threatening. If any card in the set reaches $50, I expect it to be this one.
Elderscale Wurm Current Price: $2.63 Price in 3 months: $1.00 Price in 12 months: $1.50 This one could see some fringe play, but it won't be more than a 1x Birthing Pod or Green Sun's Zenith target. Such cards are never worth anything, even if mythic.
Omniscience Current Price: $5.25 Price in 3 months: $.50 Price in 12 months: $.50
Worldfire Current Price: $1.50 Price in 3 months: $.50 Price in 12 months: $.50 Each of these mythics is unplayable. I think speculators are hoping Omniscience will replace Dream Halls in Legacy or appeal to the casual crowd. I suspect neither will happen. Both these cards were made into mythics likely as a result of R&D sitting around a table somewhat arbitrarily picking which cards felt more mythic. I see Primal Surge and Descent into Madness when I look at these two cards (i.e. $.70 and $.35 respectively). Mythic Reprints (7 Total)
Vampire Nocturnus Current Price: $9.87 Price in 3 months: $9 Price in 12 months: $6 The Vampire Lord was printed in M10 and as a Prerelease promo. Despite being printed twice, each is currently worth double digits ($13 and $10 respectively). This third printing will eventually bring the price down a bit, but I expect Nocturnus' casual appeal to keep him above $5 even long term.
Akroma's Memorial Current Price: $8.92 Price in 3 months: $9 Price in 12 months: $5 The Future Sight version is currently at $9.50, though it has reached as high as $20 at one point. This is another casual favorite that I expect to retain $5+ value long term.
Jace, Memory Adept Current Price: $7.93 Price in 3 months: $8 Price in 12 months: $4 M12 Jace was originally $27 and has dropped to $9.50, though is currently still the highest priced card in the set. With a second printing I expect the price to drop a bit. Then as it is about to rotate, I expect it to be quite cheap. Depending on how much or how little play it sees, it may reach that mark sooner rather than later in the year.
Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker Current Price: $5.93 Price in 3 months: $7 Price in 12 months: $5 It used to be an expensive casual card with narrow Constructed applications (mostly because it was competing with Cruel Ultimatum). Then it got reprinted in Duel Decks: Ajani vs Nicol Bolas. The promo version is currently $5.39 and the Conflux version is just under $9. I suspect it will see more Standard play than it did the first time around, thus generating a slight demand-based price bump. Before long, though, I expect it to settle down at $5 alongside Akroma's Memorial, just behind Vampire Nocturnus.
Garruk, Primal Hunter Current Price: $5.90 Price in 3 months: $4.5 Price in 12 months: $4 Like Jace, Garruk is back for round two. This means twice the copies in circulation and hence almost assuredly a price drop. Unlike Primeval Titan from last year, this green reprint mythic will not be a 4x in a Tier 1 strategy. Therefore it will not be worth double digits again.
Chandra, the Firebrand Current Price: $3.64 Price in 3 months: $2 Price in 12 months: $2 Chandra started out at $30 when M12 was released and has been freefalling ever since. Now with a second printing and still no home, Chandra has started out at less than $4. If she finds a home in new Standard, I can see her remaining in the $4-5 range, but if not, she will start to look just like all the other Chandras (if she doesn't already).
Serra Avatar Current Price: $2.84 Price in 3 months: $2.5 Price in 12 months: $3 This one was first printed in Urza's Saga and then as a JSS promo foil. The Saga version is worth around $7 and the JSS foil is $17. She is not all that popular anymore due to power creep in creatures, and I expect her Constructed applications to be mostly confined to the reshuffle effect (perhaps as an answer to mill). I suspect she will retain some value, though I wouldn't be surprised to see her in the $1-2 range, especially if one of the other low-dollar mythics takes off.
Primordial Hydra Current Price: $2.60 Price in 3 months: $1 Price in 12 months: $.50 Sees no tournament play, is not a high demand casual card, and is now in its second printing. I see no upside to this card. I really hope they go back to something like Force of Nature as the iconic Core Set green creature or they at least print a more powerful hydra. Noteworthy Rares
Thragtusk Current Price: $11.95 Price in 3 months: $12 Price in 12 months: $9 This is the only non-reprint rare in the set that I can imagine retaining double digit value. I don't see Snapcaster Mage or Cavern of Souls, but I'd be surprised if another rare overtakes it for the top spot. Once Phantasmal Image and Phyrexian Metamorph rotate, this guy will likely have a strong impact on Standard (if not even before that point). I tend to misevaluate green creatures more often than other creatures, so it's entirely possible it ends up in the $15-20 range. My guess is $10-12 though.
Gilded Lotus Current Price: $3.63 Price in 3 months: $8 Price in 12 months: $4 This was already a Commander staple, and now I expect it to see a healthy amount of Standard play. Tooth and Nail and Ravager Affinity no longer comprise the Tier 1 of Standard as they did when the lotus was first printed. Instead we live in a world where R&D pushes big spells hard (especially creatures) and tries to make the environment as inviting as possible to them. Ancient Grudge has not stopped Swords and Splicers and Pods from dominating Standard for the past year, so I see no reason to believe it won't keep the newest big time artifact from doing likewise.
Talrand, Sky Summoner Current Price: $3.37 Price in 3 months: $4 Price in 12 months: $1 Prior to rotation, this may see play in Delver type decks. I'm not sure that will even be the case since most of the free spells are so good due to their tempo. If we wait until turn 4, they lose much of their value. I suspect it will end up being worse than Restoration Angel pre-rotation and nearly unplayable post-rotation. I misevaluated Oracle of Mul Daya when it was first printed, and this card is similar in a lot of ways (2/2 for 4 that generates card advantage). If it ends up being the next Oracle, call it $4. If not, it may hit $1 at 3 months instead of 12 months.
Mutilate Current Price: $2.92 Price in 3 months: $4 Price in 12 months: $3 Black Control is back, and this is the board sweeper for the deck. It will only get better with Rav Duals. I expect its demand to increase a bit when that happens, and it will retain its modest value for quite a while.
Odric, Master Tactitian Current Price: $2.22 Price in 3 months: $3 Price in 12 months: $2 This is the high variance rare of the set. When it's good, it is great, and when it is not good, it is still a 3/4 first striker. Odric can play offense or defense well, unless the format is defined by larger and/or flying creatures. Given my prediction concerning Thundermaw Hellkite, I suspect the format may indeed be hostile for Odric. He is also legendary, which certainly hurts his cause. I still think he was designed as a specific metagame solution since he exudes an aroma of spiky development rather than that of flashy design (much like Hero of Oxid Ridge). This indicates to me that he may have been designed for the purpose of seeing Constructed play. If this ends up being the case, then he will be worth a few dollars. Otherwise he'll be bulk.
Yeva, Nature's Herald Current Price: $4.68 Price in 3 months: $3 Price in 12 months: $3 Yeva excites me! Her stats are quite solid, and her ability granting flash to all your other (green) creatures adds an element of surprise and virtual card advantage to green decks. I don't quite see her having the impact that Mistbind Clique, Restoration Angel, or Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir had on Standard, but the fact that she offers something similar and situationally comparable to these all stars of the past gives me hope for her future.
Master of the Pearl Trident Current Price: $4.32 Price in 3 months: $2.50 Price in 12 months: $1.75 There aren't enough merfolk to really make this guy shine in Standard (yet), though he could rise in value if enough quality fishies get printed in Rav block. His real value will be as an auto-include in Legacy merfolk. Coralhelm Commander is currently worth between $1.50 and $2.00, which is about where I would expect Master of the Pearl Trident to settle down at. It's a 4x, but only in a single Legacy deck. If it has modern or standard applications, I could see it remaining in the $2.50-$3 range, but it will more than likely drop and then stabilize around $2. Other Rares worth Mentioning I expect the following rares to each hover in the $1-2 range throughout the next year, with the possible exception of Disciple of Bolas who may drop if he doesn't see Constructed play. Stuffy Doll Serra Avenger Disciple of Bolas Magmaquake Drowned Catacomb Glacial Fortress Sunpetal Grove Rootbound Crag Dragonskull Summit I expect Cathedral of War and Slumbering Dragon to go the way of Omniscience and quickly plunge to less than $1, never to return, despite their early overhyped price tags. The sleeper card I'm picking from the <$1 category is definitely Sands of Delirium. Casual players love mill effects, and this one is repeatable and cost-effective. I also expect it will see some Constructed play as a Nephalia Drownyard type of card. $.35 is very low; I expect it to be in the $1-2 range. That can be a pretty big jump if you invest in enough of them. Concluding Remarks So if you want to go big, go Thundermaw Hellkite. If you want to go small, go Sands of Delirium. If you want something in the middle, go Gilded Lotus or Mutilate. I would not recommend holding onto Ajani for long, nor investing in lower end mythics (especially Omniscience). 70% of a set's rares typically drop below $1 within 3 months, so choose your investments wisely. Also be sure to factor in the value you will gain from playing with the card. Even though cards are worth less in 12 months than when they are first released, if you had fun with the card, it may have still been worth the investment. Similarly, if your goal is to give yourself the best chance to succeed in a tournament (or Commander circle), then you should equip yourself with the best cards for the job. Cards often more than pay for themselves in victories and prizes, so if you have a sweet idea for a deck, don't be dissuaded by my price predictions. I'd recommend going for it anyway! Craig Wescoe @Nacatls4Life on twitter |
  
 Voice of Resurgence - as low as $33.50Ral Zarek - as low as $16.49Blood Baron of Vizkopa - as low as $7.49Advent of the Wurm - as low as $5.25Legion's Initiative - as low as $4.98Progenitor Mimic - as low as $4.75Deadbridge Chant - as low as $4.48Master of Cruelties - as low as $4.00Savageborn Hydra - as low as $3.26AEtherling - as low as $3.00
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