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Finance and a Standard Analysis
Kyle Boggemes
6/26/2012 7:55:00 AM Hey everyone! The banned and restricted announcements didn't go exactly as I expected, but M13 will hopefully provide a much needed shake-up in Standard. SCG Detroit took place last weekend so we have plenty to discuss. The finance discussion seemed to garner a positive response so I will continue with a couple more lessons that can be applied to Magic. I watched a lecture by Warren Buffett given to an MBA class last week and picked up a few things to help my Magic game as well as how I approach deck selection. Lesson #4 Stay within your circle of competence Last week I said it was important to play what you know and avoid the audible. I would like to amend that by saying you should stay in your comfort zone (a.k.a. circle of competence). The odds of you succeeding with a deck you just picked up will increase if it complements your strategy and how you approach the game. You don't have to know the decklist backwards and forwards to win (it helps), but the overall strategy should be familiar to you. The best players stick to this and you can see it from the SCG invitational. In this tournament, we had two constructed formats and many of the decks were remarkably similar in Standard and Legacy. Lauren Nolen - UW Delver and RUG Delver Michael hetrick - RUG Pod and UW Stone-Blade Gerry Thompson - UW Delver and Reanimator Ronnie Ritner - UW Delver and UW Control Shaheen Soorani - Esper Control and Esper Stone-Blade Adam Boyd - Monoblue Delver and Merfolk Max Tietze - UW Delver and Reanimator Brian Braun-Duin - Frites and Esper Stone-Blade Shaheen Soorani is the best example of this because he will play control no matter what. Adam Boyd altered his traditional Delver deck to look more blue and then opted to play Merfolk in Legacy (Monoblue of course). Ronnie Ritner appears to be comfortable with blue and white across the formats. Why do I bring this up? Warren Buffett's strategy (adopted from his teacher, Ben Graham) is to only invest in companies he can understand. Control decks will always be around until the end of Magic despite naysayers claiming the creatures are too powerful these days. I can attempt to pilot a combo deck, but it just won't work for me and I have traded a lot of my legacy staples for combo as a result. Even if combo dominates a format, I would rather stick with what I know. The same can be said for aggressive decks. How many times have you heard the comment “aggro is much easier to play than control?” In my eleven (I'm old) years of tournament play, you can bet I have heard this hundreds of time and it has never been completely true. In my opinion, a burn deck is more difficult to play than Landstill - it's just how I'm wired. When people ask me what decks they should play in their next big tournament, it's hard to give the right answer. What I could picture myself winning with might not be the same for them so I like to provide multiple answers as a result. Delver might be the best deck in Standard, but why play it if you're uncomfortable? On the other hand, a great tempo player could audible to Delver and be just fine. Sticking to your guns is not a lottery play because the chance of hitting a home run is always greater while remaining in your comfort zone. How many times in the history of Magic was the so-called “secret-tech-OMGIBROKETHEFORMAT!” deck really the best? Elf Combo at PT Berlin was the only one I saw in all my years and I would have to be a fool to play it blind. In all my years of competitive play, I have never once had success with a combo deck (and that doesn't mean I haven't sleeved them up in the past). I can also use this concept with trading/dealing. Many traders don't follow the format and only pay attention to the current prices of cards. If dealers read some articles and followed the format, they could have a better chance of predicting which cards will increase/decrease in price. Which leads me to the next topic... Lesson #5 Diversify your portfolio In economics, we learn that there's no such thing as a free lunch. After three years of Econ classes, you can bet that was beaten into my head senseless. Once I got into Finance, I learned there was a way to get a free lunch - diversification. In case you're unfamiliar with the concept, it implies a diverse basket of investments will be less risky than going all in on the “sure thing.” You can bet that even if somebody's “hot tip” would yield a Windfall of cash, a smart money manager wouldn't put all their cash into that investment. But why not? Nothing is a sure thing. Unforeseen circumstances could leave you in the poor house so why not invest in things that react differently in the market?
What does this have to do with Magic!? When Return to Ravnica comes out, I plan on buying a bunch of different cards for speculation in case one doesn't work out as expected. I had the chance to buy Bonfire of the Damned for 4 bucks when Avacyn Restored was released, but I chickened out. If I was wrong, then I just burned a bunch of cash for nothing. If I buy cards I presume to be cheap, some will go up in value and others will stay around the same price netting me a profit. The other way I diversify is to hold on to Legacy staples and refrain from trading them for Standard. Even though I primarily play Standard, the cards rotate so frequently that I won't have a collection left after a few years. On the other hand, my legacy cards continue to increase in price which means I have something to fall back on if I need something desperately. You might say it's a good idea to only hold on to Legacy staples, but they could decrease in price if the SCG circuit drops the Legacy open series. We're seeing high turnouts on Sunday opens, but is that worth putting all of your eggs into one basket? The moral of the story is to keep a diverse portfolio of cards because unforeseen circumstances could leave you high and dry without the proper allocation. On the contrary, you can take the value investor approach and forget about the big picture in the metagames across formats. Warren Buffett doesn't worry about diversification because he spends his time learning companies inside and out. His belief is to invest in about five companies because being knowledgeable in more than that could prove to be difficult/impossible. I can attest to this because there was a time I tried to be competitive in limited, Standard, Type 1, Legacy, and block constructed. You can do this and have no time left on your hands for other activities and possibly be overwhelmed at the same time. The value investor approach seeks to invest in assets that are undervalued by the market. One of the best examples from my trading experience was Vendilion Clique. When this card came out, nobody played it! I had a block constructed Faerie deck that ditched them in favor of Scion of Oona. It wasn't getting any love in Legacy or Vintage at the beginning either. The card was cheap and I should have picked them up. This example is not like the coulda-shoulda-woulda revolving around Tarmogoyf because I honestly didn't see the power when it was released. I knew Vendilion Clique was going to be an all-star because it was blue, efficient, flying, a faerie, and had flash. This card would be a cross-format all-star and I avoided it because the metagame surely knew more than I did. I thought I was wrong about the power after not seeing it get any love and that was wrong. SCG Detroit Here's the breakdown: 3 UW Delver 1 UB Zombies 2 Esper Midrange 1 Grixis Control 1 Esper Control 1 Bant Pod 1 Naya Pod 1 RUG Pod 1 Get ‘er Dungrove 1 Wolf Run Ramp 1 RG Aggro 1 Infect Delver 1 Naya Aggro So here we see yet another tournament dominated by Delver - representing over half of the Top 16 yet again. Wait, what!? Sorry, I was just so used to writing about the dominance of Delver at every SCG Open that I forgot we could have something else. Is it wrong to say “Hallelujah!” when no miracle-based decks made the Top 16? We have FOURTEEN different archetypes represented in the Top 16 of Detroit. What gives? Just as we witnessed a period of Delver dominance, we get a shake-up the leaves us asking if it's still the deck to beat. A shift in the tide I don't advocate simply picking up a control deck because they're back on the map, but this is a great time for slow strategies if that's your thing. Not only do we have Esper Control, but Grixis and Esper Midrange in the mix. Here's Esper Control by Joe Knizacky (ringer):
This list probably looks familiar to you because it's Shaheen Soorani's deck from the SCG Invitational. Can you argue with success when the exact 75 (including Praetor's Grasp) Top 8 with two different pilots? Doom Blade and Go for the Throat are very well-positioned given the large amount of Restoration Angels still flying around. Next up we have Grixis Control by Chris Morgan
Another control deck sporting Despise? Perhaps this will be commonplace for a little while. It can hit planeswalkers from Esper Control and titans from ramp. I gotta go with Esper Control here, but I wouldn't fault you for playing Grixis. Whipflare and Slagstorm aren't as exciting to me as Day of Judgment and Lingering Souls to deal with creatures because they're more versatile against the field. I saw some matches played online by Reid Duke and he was having issues with Sword of War and Peace without the sideboarded Ancient Grudge for game one. I think the white cards are far more robust than red. Next up we have my favorite deck from the tournament - Esper Midrange. Ari Lax and Chris Anderson (Chranderberries/Chrandercookie) piloted this relatively new archetype to the top 4. Ari's list:
Chris's list:
Why do I like this deck so much? It has a proactive game plan when necessary and can slow down in a jiffy against beatdown. I strongly prefer the direction Chris took because Lingering Souls was very impressive against Delver. My only quarrel with his list is the small amount of answers to Geist of Saint Traft - another Phantasmal Image and Mana Leak would be nice. The common strategy when building a blue deck with Lingering Souls is to cut Mana Leaks, but I strongly disagree. I know you tap out on turn three for Lingering Souls, but what about turn 4? You can flash back the spell and be left conveniently with two mana. Mana Leak is preferred here because the Doom Blade/Go for the Throat requires black mana and you might not have that so early in the game (it's basically a light splash). Another reason I like this deck is because you get to cut lands and make room for cheaper spells. Solar Flare plays 26 lands because they have so many six mana threats, but 8-9 cantrips ensures you hit your land drops and win with cheaper guys. Blade Splicer and Restoration Angel were the entire reason Sam Black's deck was able to win and this one doesn't even attempt to trick you into thinking Delver is somewhere in the 75. I think this is one of the best decks in the format because it can fight Delver and be well-positioned against the green decks because of Restoration Angel + Blade Splicer (they do make a great couple). The only thing that mirrors SCG Opens from recent memory is that players still cannot agree on the right colors for Birthing Pod decks. Ken Crocker went with Bant:
John McGuane chose Naya:
Josh Glantzman chose RUG:
We have had plenty of articles written recently on Pod variants by Frank and Adam so I would refer to them on which cards (and colors) to play and why. Zombie Pod was not represented in the Top 16, but it's yet another way to have fun with toolboxes. Speaking of Zombies, it took down the whole darn tournament by Brad Eier:
Does this mean more people are going to start playing Ponder in Zombies? I'm still very unsure if the splash is worth it, but this list got second place twice in the last month already. Killing Wave will likely pick up additional steam after this win. The Act of Aggression is a nice addition to the deck because you can steal their creature and sacrifice it to Killing Wave. I appreciate that Fume Spitter is in the sideboard because there were too many removal spells in the conventional list. The format is getting slower and the last thing I want is a ton of kill spells versus control. John Bohn took a traditional approach to RG Aggro and was rewarded with a Top 8 slot:
I would like this deck if it weren't so reliant on mana dorks and played more Bonfire of the Damned. Craig Wescoe believes the card is so strong that it's worth playing in Delver - why can't we get some extra copies in a red deck? It's one of the better answers to Lingering Souls because it goes to the dome in the late game versus control and already insane versus Delver and aggro. Ramp is not dead because control is back and must be respected once again:
Chris Jacobs played the deck everyone forgot about and took advantage of the lack of answers. Due to Esper Midrange, Solar Flare, Esper Control, and Grixis Control being in the spotlight, it provides plenty of strategies that need specific cards to beat ramp. How many times do you beat ramp with control while filling your deck full Delver hate? The real question is why it's worth it to play hate when Chris Jacobs is the only one in the tournament playing the deck? I hope this shows Ramp can still win and you need hate cards like the Ghost Quarter/Phantasmal Image combo to compete. Despise is also a great option that is picking up steam in control; don't cut them even though they look hokey (they have a good purpose). The last time Ramp was the big man on campus, Cavern of Souls didn't exist which means we're comfortable beating them on a front that no longer exists. You need to be more creative and proactive against Ramp this time around. Randy Sheffield played on oldie-but-goodie in Dungrove and got 16th place:
This deck is surprisingly interesting. Given the uprise in control decks, I would play some more maindeck swords. When you try to fit extra toolbox creatures for Green Sun's Zenith, remember that most real life games will play out where you just want to search for Dungrove Elder. I might want a couple copies of Garruk Relentless in the maindeck to search for Dungrove more often. The Bellowing Tanglewurm might look cute, but please don't cut it - he's awesome! This Naya Aggro deck is another awesome green deck because it addressed most of my problems with the older versions.
Ryan Gerhart played almost an exact replica of Martin Juza's list from the Top 8 of GP Manilla. By now, you know of my affinity for Bonfire of the Damned so 4 in the maindeck is just gravy. It may seem like 23 lands plus 8 mana dorks plus 4 Borderland Rangers are too many mana sources, but the Bonfires deal tons of late game damage. Four copies of Gavony Township provide you with extra ways to utilize your loads of mana as well. All we have left is Delver: Kevin Gerhart 2nd place:
There was only one Delver deck in the Top 8. Raymond Perez Jr. made the Top 16 with Yuuya Wantanabe's winning list from GP Manilla:
This list is very solid and it's my current choice for the top Delver deck at the moment. Pike Delver has plenty of gas because it only plays 19 lands which gives Staying Power against control. I would flood out against decks that 1-for-1 me with the lists that pack 22 lands. Chris Renner finishes our Top 16 breakdown with a traditional Delver list:
The metagame analysis was so much easier when half of the field played a generic Delver deck, but I can't complain. It appears the complacency of Delver players put them in the doghouse last weekend. Steve Krueger did add some tweaks to Adam Boyd's list from the SCG Invitational Top 8:
Blighted Agent feels odd to me because you already have so many two drops that can't fight (Invisible Stalker). I would likely choose the UG Poison deck that has been doing well on MODO over this because it's more focused. Runechanter's Pike is interesting in poison because you get to play less lands and I'm greedy like that. This deck is certainly more unique than Mage-Blade so I wouldn't judge if you just want to spice things up with Steve's list. Here's a Blue/Green Poison list for reference (Jasanborn 3-1 Daily Event 6/25/12):
What did we learn? Fourteen different archetypes in the Top 16 is a lot of information to digest. How do we take advantage of this? The most important piece of information to analyze is the overall trend. We saw Esper Control and Grixis Control snag Top 8 slots. It's not abnormal to see a couple control decks in the Top 8, but Esper Midrange is also shaping up to be a tier 1 deck. I could be a tad premature to say this after one event, but the deck feels like a winner to me. Expect to play against Esper Midrange in your next big tournament because it appeals to a lot of players. UW Delver needs to adapt to a field packing Doom Blades because their Restoration Angels aren't looking too impressive given the hostile metagame. Esper Midrange was certainly the breakout deck of the tournament which means it needs to adapt to the mirror. Note that Chris Anderson had five Doom Blade effects in the maindeck, but needs to adjust to a slower format. Ramp is poised for a comeback since the control decks need specific cards to fight them. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a surge in Primeval Titans in the next couple of weeks and then drop back down after players show it more respect. Delver looks like it's down for the count; the increased presence of control certainly made things messy. The key to fighting Delver decks is to pack plenty of spot removal spells for Restoration Angel without losing sight of Geist of Saint Traft. They certainly have the tools in their arsenal to fight a slowing metagame without losing focus of the aggro decks that will always exist. Conclusion Control is back on the map- look out for Esper Midrange in the coming weeks. Whatever deck you prefer will need extra big spells to fight grindy games against control and midrange. Birthing Pod is still a big player, but many avenues will lead you to success. Delver had a bad week and it needs to improve the control matchup to get back on top. There were plenty of successful decks this weekend, but it's important to stick with what you know. If you don't listen to me, please listen to Mr. Buffett (he's pretty smart). Also remember to diversify your card portfolio in order to be stronger against Standard rotations that inevitably happen each year. That's all for this week; thanks for reading! -Kyle |
 Tarmogoyf - as low as $96.00Dark Confidant - as low as $53.28Vendilion Clique - as low as $35.75Sword of Fire and Ice - as low as $23.99Sword of Light and Sh. - as low as $20.25Elspeth, Knight Errant - as low as $20.00Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker - as low as $17.69Cryptic Command - as low as $17.49Doubling Season - as low as $14.00Arcbound Ravager - as low as $13.27
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