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Format Analysis and The Big Game
Kyle Boggemes
6/19/2012 11:05:00 AM “Finance, on some level, is just a big game. The kids who play Magic are great at these big games. They grow up and this is the next game.” -Jon Finkel I was reading an article about Jon's hedge fund, Landscape Capital and came across that quote. It pretty much embodies the spirit of many Magic players all around the world. We have the desire to compete, but not on the physical level that is demanded in athletics. It can be difficult to begin playing Magic as a kid and move on to real-world activities because they just aren't as fun.  Full Details for TCGplayer.com MaxPoint Diamond Open $5K - Orlando The reason I share this is because I am beginning a Master's in Finance soon and have learned plenty of lessons that can be applied to Magic. I'm getting a head start on classes by watching lectures online. Some of you may be familiar with my Jace article from a while back and I think the same lessons apply to any aspect of your life. If you aren't willing to work outside the classroom, there's probably a better alternative for you. We are also experiencing a revolution in trading in the MTG community. When I was a kid, my collection grew by simple arbitrage, but today everybody has an iPhone to search for the latest prices. Rather than trading for value today, we need to look at future prices based on what's expected in WotC announcements, metagame shifts, and set releases. Metagame trends are rarely discussed in articles about finance so I will try my hand at it this week. On top of this, I want to briefly go over what has happened in the Standard metagame. We have a banned and restricted announcement on June 20th so too much discussion could be all for nothing. The results are unique so I think some good ideas can be gained even if the format shifts soon. Lesson #1 - Buy Low, Sell High Seems easy enough right? It really isn't. If you can consistently do this, congratulations, you're the first. You think to yourself, “this can't go up higher can it?” It goes up a little higher in price and you ask yourself the same question and decide that it can increase in value this time. The chances are that you are buying on the high and it will come down shortly. I didn't want to relate this to buying and selling cards, but rather deck choice. The danger is even higher with deck choices because comfortability and experience must be accounted for. When you play a deck that you aren't comfortable piloting when the whole world knows how to beat you, the odds of success are much lower. This is an important concept because it seems like every article on the internet is telling you to play Delver. What if you have never played it before? Does the power level justify the lack of experience? How the hell do you win the mirror match!? One of the reasons I place a large emphasis on picking the best deck is because I want to learn how to play it before time runs out. The last thing I want to do is pick up Delver when everybody knows my deck better than I do. Another case is when the most popular deck isn't actually the most powerful. An example is RG Aggro and its back to back wins on the SCG circuit last month. Just because it had some success does not mean it was the best deck - Delver was still doing well. Once everybody starting playing decks that killed mana dorks (Zombies), green aggro aficionados walked into an Ambush. I use this article series to discuss metagame trends to help you build decks, not to play the flavor of the week. The guy who jumps from deck to deck will have less success than somebody who practices with a powerful archetype because he will have his day when it slips under the radar. Lesson #2 - External Shocks Impact the overall market While trading in the market, you need to be aware of macro-level risks. An example is an increase in the taxation of dividend payments. The profit from dividends will decrease and prices across the board will shift as a result. Folks who are about to retire looking for capital preservation and yields higher than U.S government debt will want to go elsewhere causing a dynamic shift in the market. WotC can be seen as a regulatory body for MTG and they also have the ability to make decisions that impact prices and formats in the blink of an eye. Like lesson #1, I want to focus on the metagame rather than card prices because that's not really my thing. The banning of a card results in players not knowing the best deck. How do you fight your enemy when they cannot be seen? This typically happens when Standard rotates and the State Championships showcase dozens of different strategies. What would happen if enough Delver cards are banned? There are plenty of good archetypes that could emerge as the top dog, but the card choices need to change. The Hive Mind is very efficient and each card selection and playable archetype has an over-powered Delver deck in mind. How do you allocated specific metagame slots when you play against an unknown field? This takes time and a little bit of guesswork to find the optimal choices. I also believe this is a reason to be proactive when the enemy is not clear. I have fallen into the trap of figuring out the format and sticking to a deck even after a shock such as the introduction of a new set. My BW Control deck from pre-Avacyn Restored was beating every deck in the format, but the addition of Zealous Conscripts changed the crucial RG Aggro matchup. Delver was also a completely different deck thanks to the addition of Restoration Angel. Like a dope, I stuck with the deck for a couple of weeks, but was having terrible results. Not only did my deck need to change, but I should probably scrap it in favor of something that can fight the new metagame more efficiently. The new set changed the way we played Standard because the new cards demanded answers to threats that previously didn't exist. Every deck changes which means you must change as well to adapt. The StarcityGames Invitational featured 109 UW Delver decks out of 235 competitors. This is represents 46% of the field and that doesn't even include Esper Midrange, UW Midrange, and Spirits. This gives us over half of the format playing some sort of Snapcaster Mage/Ponder deck which doesn't make for a healthy format. A banning of some sort will cause players to scratch their heads for a couple weeks as old favorites come out of the woodwork (see below). The models are currently designed to include ways to respect Delver, but the expected turnout will be dependent on cards being banned soon. RG Ramp has been barely played because the control sideboard plan out of Delver pretty much has the deck on lockdown. Primeval Titan will arise from his slumber and we need to fight him once again (and people will cry for him to be banned).
Lesson #3 - Don't just take our word for it! For every argument, there's a counter-argument. I can't stress enough the importance of reading as many articles as possible. If you only listen to a few people, then you will have a warped perspective of the format. You will see countless articles about what stocks to buy because of an expected macroeconomic event. This pitch is based on the expectation of something uncertain happening in the future and will be wrong if things don't go according to plan. Another article is listed below and it says exactly the opposite. Who do you trust? The simple answer is that you must do your own research and come to your own conclusions. Even if one of these authors is correct with their prediction, you won't know the appropriate times to get in and out of the stocks in question. If one author writes about a deck beating Delver, another will write about the matchup playing in the opposite direction. Who's correct? You just have to try for yourself because they might be playing the deck in a different way than you. Gerry Thompson is a huge advocate of sideboarding on the fly and teaching us to fish as opposed to handing us a meal. If we don't do what he does, every game will play out differently. There's no point to play a deck because it supposedly beats Delver because unless you understand the overall strategy, it's not going to happen. A little bit of diligence goes a long way... So you already know the overall breakdown of Delver versus the rest of the field. How did they fare in the tournament? SCG Invitational Breakdown 9 UW Delver 1 RUG Pod 2 Esper Control 1 Esper Midrange 1 Monoblue Delver 1 Frites 1 UW Midrange Fun Fact: Every deck in the Top 16 had a spell that requires blue mana (Frites with flashback Tracker's Instinct). Another Fun Fact: Number of Snapcaster Mages in top 16: 48/64 Number of Ponders in top 16: 48/64 I'm pretty sure at least one of these cards won't live to see the end of the month in Standard. If they do, I will continue to play the deck and be safe knowing I have a good list. Luckily for us, we have some sweet decks that made the top 16: Michael Hetrick: A quote from Twitter: theshipitholla Interesting tidbit: I was in 2nd place at the end of all 3 days. #SCGInvi
If you're looking for a proven deck to play after the inevitable bannings, try building around Birthing Pod. This deck has so many options so it's sure to change after the metagame shift. Brian Braun-Duin placed in the top 8 with Frites:
I played against my friend at my local shop last week and found Unburial Rites plus Elesh Norn to be able to compete with Delver. This is the type of deck that follows the buy low/sell high rule because it's an uphill battle against graveyard hate. I would never rule this deck out because it's actually more powerful when everyone thinks it's terrible. Shaheen Soorani is one of the best control deck builders in the world. He Top 8'ed with - you guessed it - Esper Control:
If you thought Despise was good now, just wait until everybody dusts off their Primeval Titans! I was very skeptical of this card, but it can also fight Restoration Angel through Cavern of Souls. With the way this deck was constructed, it should dodge the cards that are the most likely to be banned (interpret that how you will). I had the idea to put the Blade Splicer Restoration Angel combo into an Esper Control shell last week, but decided it was too crazy. Luckily Michael Jacob is crazier than I and won a lot of matches.
This deck looks like a blast and I'm going to give it a try soon. I really like the black splash because Vapor Snag was weaker when you had a more controlling game plan (#UWMidrange). The idea of playing multiple Phantasmal Images to beat Geist of Saint Traft is certainly something I enjoy, too. If Delver of Secrets is banned and not Snapcaster Mage and or Ponder, this is my go-to deck. I know Delver is a foe to most of the readers out there, but this deck just looks so cool!
Adam Boyd forgot his Seachrome Coasts and Glacial Fortresses at home and had to make due with Islands and Inkmoth Nexus. What was he going to do, buy them!? They're going to rotate for cryin' out loud! I think this deck has something going because all of the cards just make a ton of sense. Invisible Stalker was weak when you had to draw both the creature and the equipment, but nexus is a great back-up plan. An all blue mana base ensures you can play less lands because the extra color requirement is not an issue anymore. It's entirely possible this is the way to go for blue decks when the format is filled with control decks. Inkmoth Nexus provides reach that was previously unavailable. SCG Open Breakdown 4 UW Delver 1 UB Zombies 1 Naya Aggro 1 UW Midrange 1 Naya Pod 2 Solar Flare 1 RUG Pod 1 Tezzeret Control 1 Wolf Run Jund 1 4C Birthing Pod 1 Frites 1 Wolf Run Ramp What's going on here!? I was so complacent with the dominance of Delver that I thought my thesis on the format needed to be reexamined after I saw the Top 16 lists. Oh wait, I know what happened; all of the Delver players were in the other event. False alarm, people - Delver is still awesome. Look at the diversity when you take the people who love to play Delver and create a separate tournament for them? Even though the presence of Delver would be smaller going in to the event, there failed to be a dominant deck. This goes to show you those external shocks such as taking out a majority of the Delver players brings out diversity and uncertainty. I can see this format being a good representation of what the format would look like if Delver is taken down a notch. Don't get me wrong; in order to win with Delver, you need to practice. Some of the best decks required no skill to pilot (Jund) while others (Faeries and Caw-Blade) were very tricky and Delver falls somewhere in the middle. Those who won with Delver in this event were all players I recognize (Bobby Graves, GFabs, Chris Boozer, and Ross Merriam). There are a ton of sweet decks so let's show em' off. First up, we have a Tezz brew piloted by Ian Farnung:
Tezz was never my type of planeswalker, but I know he's a fan favorite. Expect more of this guy if a banning occurs. Michael Marlow has been killing the competition with Zombies lately. He placed second in two opens within a month.
Some players are skeptical of Killing Wave and Ponder, but Mike just keeps on winning. It's hard to argue against success. Dan McNamara broke into the Top 16 with his Jund-style Ramp deck:
So many singletons; I love it! Doom Blade and Go for the Throat are so well positioned that it's worth a splash. LSV used Hero of Bladehold to fight Ramp decks and the rest of the world uses Consecrated Sphinx in Delver. You gotta beat the best to be the best and this is the evolution to stay competitive. I don't want to go over all of the lists from the open, but only use it as an example of how diverse the format can be underneath all those Delver decks. I love to play Delver mirrors, but I know that powering it down is best for the game. TCGplayer Open 5K San Diego Breakdown 7 UW Delver 2 Naya Pod 1 Esper Control 1 BG Wolf Run 1 UW Miracles 2 Zombie Pod 1 RG Aggro 1 Tezzeret Well at least Delver wasn't 50% of the top 16. We're making some progress, but the SCG Ringers were at the invitational. This event was on the other side of the country so some talented players made their way to San Diego. Congrats to Brian Kibler for his win.
Unsurprisingly, Brian chose to play a Naya deck. The important thing to take away from this deck is the Nearheath Pilgrim. Strangleroot Geist is falling out of favor and this can be a substitute for the fourth copy. Brian's decks often excluded Birthing Pod lately, but he decided they were good enough again. Overall, pod had a great showing this weekend and could likely be one of the top dogs if Delver goes away after June 20th. Brian is a great example of the buy and hold strategy. He could worry about which deck is the best-positioned each week, but just sticks to what he likes instead. Kibler has confidence in his deck and Conviction in your 75 is half of the battle. Even though it doesn't mean he wins every time, the familiarity ensures a higher likelihood of success. Kyle Dunne combined two top performers this weekend - Birthing Pod and Zombies. It's hard to compare each of these versions of pod because they do similar things, but attack different angles.
Chue Thao used a similar version to also Top 16:
Omar Valencia has a cool name and a cool deck that he used to Top 16:
There are so many different ways to build a Tezz deck since the Hive Mind hasn't dissected it quite yet. Robert Jures was the only player this weekend to do well with Miracles:
Many of my miracle lists played a couple Snapcaster Mages, but Rob took the plunge and threw in a set. Who would have thought that playing inherently powerful cards would get you there? Conclusion Please post in the comments if these lessons were helpful. I have a few more in mind that I want to save for a future article if these go over well. The SCG Invitational took many of the best Delver players and we had a diverse metagame in the rest of the events as a result. In my eyes, Mage-Blade is very oppressive as it took a high EV tournament to take out the ringers from the rest of the events around the country. We saw plenty of neat decks this weekend and it just solidifies my view that Standard can be great once we have a shake-up! If you think about your job as a game, you'll never work a day in your life. Thanks for reading! -Kyle |
  
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